Abstract. Glacial isostatic adjustment is largely governed by rheological properties of the Earth's mantle. Large mass redistributions in the ocean-cryosphere system and the subsequent response of the visco-elastic Earth have led to dramatic sea level changes in the past. This process is ongoing and in order to understand and predict current and future sea level changes the knowledge of mantle properties such as viscosity is essential. In this study we present a method to obtain estimates of mantle viscosities by assimilation of relative sea level data into a visco-elastic model of the lithosphere and mantle. We set up a particle filter with probabilistic resampling. In an identical twin experiment we show that mantle viscosities can be recovered in a glacial isostatic adjustment model of a simple three layer earth structure consisting of an elastic lithosphere and two mantle layers of different viscosity. In two scenarios we investigate the dependence of the ensemblebehavior on the ensemble initialization and observation uncertainties and show that the recovery is successful if the target parameter values are properly sampled by the initial ensemble probability distribution. This even includes cases in which the target viscosity values are located far in the tail of the initial ensemble probability distribution. We then successfully apply the method to two special cases that are relevant for the assimilation of real observations: 1) using observations taken from a single region only, here Laurentide and Fennoscandia, respectively, and 2) using only observations from the last 10 kyrs.

中文翻译：

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通过将古海平面数据同化为冰川均衡调整模型来限制地幔粘度的方法

摘要。冰川均衡调整在很大程度上受地球地幔流变特性的控制。过去，海洋-冰冻圈系统中的大规模质量重新分布以及随后的粘弹性地球的响应导致了海平面的剧烈变化。这个过程正在进行中，为了理解和预测当前和未来的海平面变化，地幔特性（如粘度）的知识是必不可少的。在这项研究中，我们提出了一种通过将相对海平面数据同化为岩石圈和地幔的粘弹性模型来估计地幔粘度的方法。我们建立了一个带有概率重采样的粒子滤波器。在同一个孪生实验中，我们表明地幔粘度可以在一个简单的三层地球结构的冰川均衡调整模型中恢复，该模型由一个弹性岩石圈和两个不同粘度的地幔层组成。在两种情况下，我们研究了集成行为对集成初始化和观测不确定性的依赖性，并表明如果目标参数值被初始集成概率分布正确采样，则恢复是成功的。这甚至包括目标粘度值位于初始集合概率分布尾部很远的情况。然后，我们成功地将该方法应用于与实际观测值同化相关的两个特殊情况：1) 仅使用来自单个区域的观测值，