Abstract

In the last decade resource curse scholars have argued widely that oil-rich countries are more likely to initiate armed disputes with their neighbors. In this essay, we argue that the evidence points toward oil peace, not conflict, as a function of both domestic and international factors. We draw on analyses of our own dataset and two from past studies to show that the data is more supportive of petro-peace than of petro-aggression. We also demonstrate that the Iran–Iraq War is singularly responsible for what was believed to have been a radical-petro-aggression effect globally. We conclude that, to the extent that evidence suggests a trend, it is more likely for a Pax Petrolica.

摘要

在过去十年中，资源诅咒学者广泛争论，石油资源丰富的国家更有可能与邻国发生武装争端。在本文中，我们认为证据指向石油和平，而不是冲突，这是国内和国际因素共同作用的结果。我们利用对我们自己的数据集和过去研究中的两个数据集的分析来表明数据更支持石油和平而不是石油侵略。我们还证明，两伊战争对全球被认为是激进的石油侵略效应负有独特的责任。我们得出的结论是，就证据表明的趋势而言，Pax Petrolica 的可能性更大。