In slope reliability analysis, “local averaging” of the statistical soil parameters on the slope slip surface is the main factor influencing the results of the analysis. In this study, we analyzed the curvilinear local averaging of a 2-D random field by equation derivation based on random field theory and statistical analysis. By assuming a circular slip surface, the variance reduction due to curvilinear local averaging was obtained as a function of geometric characteristics of the slip surface and variance at a “point” level, and a simple reliability analysis method for homogeneous natural slope was proposed. The proposed method contains three major steps: statistical analysis of soil parameters by site tests, determination of the limit state curve using a series of deterministic finite element analyses, and the calculation of slope failure probability by integrating the probability density function corresponding to the limit state curve. A comparative analysis shows that the proposed slope reliability analysis method based on a curvilinear local averaging of a 2-D random field is reliable and efficient.

在边坡可靠度分析中，边坡滑面统计土参数的“局部平均”是影响分析结果的主要因素。在这项研究中，我们通过基于随机场理论和统计分析的方程推导来分析二维随机场的曲线局部平均。假设为圆形滑面，将曲线局部平均引起的方差减小作为滑面几何特征和“点”级方差的函数，提出了一种简单的均质自然边坡可靠度分析方法。所提出的方法包含三个主要步骤：通过现场试验对土壤参数进行统计分析，使用一系列确定性有限元分析确定极限状态曲线，通过积分极限状态曲线对应的概率密度函数计算边坡破坏概率。对比分析表明，所提出的基于二维随机场曲线局部平均的边坡可靠度分析方法是可靠且有效的。