The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change agreed to “strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty” (UNFCCC 2015). Designing a global mitigation strategy to support this goal poses formidable challenges. For one, there are trade-offs between the economic costs and the environmental benefits of averting climate impacts. Furthermore, the coupled human-Earth systems are subject to deep and dynamic uncertainties. Previous economic analyses typically addressed either the former, introducing multiple objectives, or the latter, making mitigation actions responsive to new information. This paper aims at bridging these two separate strands of literature. We demonstrate how information feedback from observed global temperature changes can jointly improve the economic and environmental performance of mitigation strategies. We focus on strategies that maximize discounted expected utility while also minimizing warming above 2 °C, damage costs, and mitigation costs. Expanding on the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model and previous multi-objective efforts, we implement closed-loop control strategies, map the emerging trade-offs and quantify the value of the temperature information feedback under both well-characterized and deep climate uncertainties. Adaptive strategies strongly reduce high regrets, guarding against mitigation overspending for less sensitive climate futures, and excessive warming for more sensitive ones.

《联合国气候变化框架公约》同意“在可持续发展和努力消除贫困的背景下，加强全球对气候变化威胁的反应”（UNFCCC 2015）。设计一个全球缓解战略来支持这一目标带来了艰巨的挑战。一方面，在经济成本和避免气候影响的环境效益之间存在权衡。此外，耦合的人地系统还受到深度和动态不确定性的影响。以前的经济分析通常针对前者，引入多个目标，或者针对后者，使缓解行动对新信息做出响应。本文旨在弥合这两种不同的文献。我们展示了来自观测到的全球温度变化的信息反馈如何共同改善减缓策略的经济和环境绩效。我们专注于最大化折现预期效用同时最小化超过 2°C 的升温、损害成本和缓解成本的策略。扩展动态综合气候经济 (DICE) 模型和先前的多目标努力，我们实施闭环控制策略，绘制新出现的权衡并量化特征良好和深部气候下温度信息反馈的价值不确定性。适应性策略极大地减少了高度后悔，防止对不太敏感的气候未来的缓解超支，以及对更敏感的气候的过度变暖。我们专注于最大化折现预期效用同时最小化超过 2°C 的升温、损害成本和缓解成本的策略。扩展动态综合气候经济 (DICE) 模型和先前的多目标努力，我们实施闭环控制策略，绘制新出现的权衡并量化特征良好和深部气候下温度信息反馈的价值不确定性。适应性策略极大地减少了高度后悔，防止对不太敏感的气候未来的缓解超支，以及对更敏感的气候的过度变暖。我们专注于最大化折现预期效用同时最小化超过 2°C 的升温、损害成本和缓解成本的策略。扩展动态综合气候经济 (DICE) 模型和先前的多目标努力，我们实施闭环控制策略，绘制新出现的权衡并量化特征良好和深部气候下温度信息反馈的价值不确定性。适应性策略极大地减少了高度后悔，防止对不太敏感的气候未来的缓解超支，以及对更敏感的气候的过度变暖。扩展动态综合气候经济 (DICE) 模型和先前的多目标努力，我们实施闭环控制策略，绘制新出现的权衡并量化特征良好和深部气候下温度信息反馈的价值不确定性。适应性策略极大地减少了高度后悔，防止对不太敏感的气候未来的缓解超支，以及对更敏感的气候的过度变暖。扩展动态综合气候经济 (DICE) 模型和先前的多目标努力，我们实施闭环控制策略，绘制新出现的权衡并量化特征良好和深部气候下温度信息反馈的价值不确定性。适应性策略极大地减少了高度后悔，防止对不太敏感的气候未来的缓解超支，以及对更敏感的气候的过度变暖。