Applying panel SVAR modelling to 1995–2017 regional data, we estimate fiscal multipliers in Italy at national and sub-national level and find that expansionary fiscal policies produce positive and persistent effects on GDP. Fiscal multipliers remain larger than 1 even 10 years after a discretionary fiscal policy is implemented. Government investment stimulates output more than government consumption. Moreover, fiscal multipliers are higher in Centre-Northern regions than in Southern ones. Such evidence is confirmed when fiscal foresight is considered. Our findings support the Keynesian perspective, indicating that Italy should increase public investments to foster economic growth especially in the poorest Southern regions.

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量化意大利的财政乘数：使用区域数据的面板 SVAR 分析

将面板 SVAR 模型应用于 1995-2017 年的区域数据，我们估计了意大利在国家和地方层面的财政乘数，发现扩张性财政政策对 GDP 产生了积极和持续的影响。财政自由裁量政策实施 10 年后，财政乘数仍大于 1。政府投资比政府消费更能刺激产出。此外，中北部地区的财政乘数高于南部地区。当考虑财政预见时，这些证据得到证实。我们的研究结果支持凯恩斯主义的观点，表明意大利应该增加公共投资以促进经济增长，尤其是在最贫穷的南部地区。