There is an increasing global population of older adults in recent years, and the trend will be more acute in the following decades. Owing to low mobility and physical impairment, the elderly are sensitive to their nearby neighborhood environment. However, it is challenging to accurately judge changes of the elderly’ quality of life (QoL) before conducting improvement strategies of neighborhood environment due to complicated environmental impacts. This study proposes a QoL prediction approach by integrating artificial neural network (ANN) model, scenario analysis and Monte Carlo experiment. The QoL of the elderly is measured from four domains, and the neighborhood environment is measured by 16 key indicators. Based on the measurement data collected from Nanjing, the ANN model is trained to fit the influence relationship between neighborhood environment and the elderly's QoL. Scenario analysis sets up potential scenarios for neighborhood environment under natural progressions and human interventions. Finally, Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to predict the probability distribution of the elderly's QoL values under potential scenarios by using the trained ANN model as functions. The predictive QoL values of the elderly show the change pattern of the elderly's QoL with dynamic neighborhood environment, reveal the independent and compound effects of natural progressions and human interventions, and confirm the mutual promotions between human interventions. Furthermore, the integrated prediction approach can be implemented in other cities and regions to forecast the local elderly's QoL under possible scenarios, and offer concise evidence for deciding improvement strategies of neighborhood environment to support aging-in-place.

近年来，全球老年人口不断增加，未来几十年这一趋势将更加明显。由于行动不便和身体受损，老年人对附近的邻里环境很敏感。然而，由于复杂的环境影响，在实施邻里环境改善策略之前准确判断老年人生活质量（QoL）的变化具有挑战性。本研究通过集成人工神经网络 (ANN) 模型、情景分析和蒙特卡罗实验，提出了一种 QoL 预测方法。老年人生活质量从四个领域衡量，邻里环境由16个关键指标衡量。根据从南京收集的测量数据，训练 ANN 模型以拟合邻里环境与老年人 QoL 之间的影响关系。情景分析为自然进程和人类干预下的邻里环境建立潜在情景。最后，利用经过训练的ANN模型作为函数，进行蒙特卡罗实验，预测潜在场景下老年人QoL值的概率分布。老年人生活质量预测值反映了老年人生活质量随邻里动态变化的规律，揭示了自然进程与人为干预的独立和复合效应，证实了人为干预之间的相互促进作用。此外，综合预测方法可以在其他城市和地区实施，以预测当地老年人的健康状况。