Despite increasing attention in recent years, only a limited number of studies have investigated the determinants of landowner re-enrollment intentions in conservation incentive programs. However, none of these studies controlled for the potential self-selection of participants. The concern for a self-selection bias is policy relevant because researchers and policymakers investigate the determinants of re-enrollment not only to predict the retention rate of participants but also to promote the long-term success of conservation programs. This paper uses data on eligible landowners, consisting of both participants and non-participants, from a forest incentive program in Japan to examine the determinants of the participants' re-enrollment decision, controlling for a rich set of observable landowner attributes, and conditioning on the unobserved participants' attributes which are identified by modeling the re-enrollment decision jointly with the decision to participate. The empirical results indicate that the unconditional marginal effects from the separate re-enrollment model are biased by selection and underestimate the effects by between 12% and 48%. The results also show that the observable factors that attract landowners to participate also tend to encourage participants to remain in the program. This implies that interventions directed at increasing initial participation are also likely to increase re-enrollment.

尽管近年来受到越来越多的关注，但只有少数研究调查了保护激励计划中土地所有者重新登记意向的决定因素。然而，这些研究都没有控制参与者的潜在自我选择。对自我选择偏见的关注与政策相关，因为研究人员和政策制定者调查重新注册的决定因素，不仅是为了预测参与者的保留率，而且是为了促进保护计划的长期成功。本文使用来自日本森林激励计划的合格土地所有者（包括参与者和非参与者）的数据来检查参与者重新注册决定的决定因素，控制一组丰富的可观察的土地所有者属性，并以未观察到的参与者的属性为条件，这些属性是通过对重新注册决策和参与决策进行建模来确定的。实证结果表明，独立再入学模型的无条件边际效应会因选择而产生偏差，并且低估了 12% 至 48% 的效应。结果还表明，吸引土地所有者参与的可观察因素也倾向于鼓励参与者继续参与该计划。这意味着旨在增加初始参与的干预措施也可能会增加再入学率。实证结果表明，独立再入学模型的无条件边际效应会因选择而产生偏差，并且低估了 12% 至 48% 的效应。结果还表明，吸引土地所有者参与的可观察因素也倾向于鼓励参与者继续参与该计划。这意味着旨在增加初始参与的干预措施也可能会增加再入学率。实证结果表明，独立再入学模型的无条件边际效应会因选择而产生偏差，并且低估了 12% 至 48% 的效应。结果还表明，吸引土地所有者参与的可观察因素也倾向于鼓励参与者继续参与该计划。这意味着旨在增加初始参与的干预措施也可能会增加再入学率。