Coastal environments such as the Chesapeake Bay have long been impacted by eutrophication stressors resulting from human activities, and these impacts are now being compounded by global warming trends. However, there are few studies documenting long-term estuarine temperature change and the relative contributions of rivers, the atmosphere, and the ocean. In this study, Chesapeake Bay warming, since 1985, is quantified using a combination of cruise observations and model outputs, and the relative contributions to that warming are estimated via numerical sensitivity experiments with a watershed–estuarine modeling system. Throughout the Bay’s main stem, similar warming rates are found at the surface and bottom between the late 1980s and late 2010s (0.02 ± 0.02°C/year, mean ± 1 standard error), with elevated summer rates (0.04 ± 0.01°C/year) and lower rates of winter warming (0.01 ± 0.01°C/year). Most (~85%) of this estuarine warming is driven by atmospheric effects. The secondary influence of ocean warming increases with proximity to the Bay mouth, where it accounts for more than half of summer warming in bottom waters. Sea level rise has slightly reduced summer warming, and the influence of riverine warming has been limited to the heads of tidal tributaries. Future rates of warming in Chesapeake Bay will depend not only on global atmospheric trends, but also on regional circulation patterns in mid-Atlantic waters, which are currently warming faster than the atmosphere.

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切萨皮克湾变暖的程度和原因

切萨皮克湾等沿海环境长期以来一直受到人类活动造成的富营养化压力源的影响，而这些影响现在因全球变暖趋势而加剧。然而，很少有研究记录长期的河口温度变化以及河流、大气和海洋的相对贡献。在这项研究中，自 1985 年以来，切萨皮克湾变暖通过结合巡航观测和模型输出进行量化，并通过分水岭 - 河口建模系统的数值敏感性实验估计对变暖的相对贡献。在 1980 年代后期和 2010 年代后期之间，在整个海湾的主干中发现了类似的升温速率（0.02 ± 0.02°C/年，平均 ± 1 个标准误差），夏季升温速率升高（0.04 ± 0. 01°C/年）和较低的冬季变暖率（0.01 ± 0.01°C/年）。大部分（~85%）河口变暖是由大气效应驱动的。海洋变暖的次要影响随着靠近海湾口而增加，它占底部水域夏季变暖的一半以上。海平面上升略微降低了夏季变暖，河流变暖的影响仅限于潮汐支流的源头。切萨皮克湾未来的变暖速度不仅取决于全球大气趋势，还取决于大西洋中部水域的区域环流模式，目前这些水域的变暖速度快于大气。它占底部水域夏季变暖的一半以上。海平面上升略微降低了夏季变暖，河流变暖的影响仅限于潮汐支流的源头。切萨皮克湾未来的变暖速度不仅取决于全球大气趋势，还取决于大西洋中部水域的区域环流模式，目前这些水域的变暖速度快于大气。它占底部水域夏季变暖的一半以上。海平面上升略微降低了夏季变暖，河流变暖的影响仅限于潮汐支流的源头。切萨皮克湾未来的变暖速度不仅取决于全球大气趋势，还取决于大西洋中部水域的区域环流模式，目前这些水域的变暖速度快于大气。