Long-term trends of Nordic power market: A review,Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment

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Long-term trends of Nordic power market: A review
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment ( IF 5.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-04 , DOI: 10.1002/wene.413
Yi‐kuang Chen ₁ , Anne Hexeberg ₁ , Knut Einar Rosendahl ₂ , Torjus F. Bolkesjø ₁

Affiliation

The Nordic power system will play an important role in a future carbon-neutral European power market. In this study, 43 scenarios in 15 Nordic power market outlooks published between 2016 and 2019 are reviewed. Most scenarios see high future power prices with substantial correlation with assumed gas and emission quota prices. The underlying uncertainties in gas and emission quota prices are passed on to future power prices. The power prices are well above the cost of wind power, indicating that the wind deployment is either underestimated or might be largely dependent on non-market factors. The models used for the outlooks have limited sector coverage and trade-offs are made between computational resources and complexity. A set of recommendations for future outlook publications are proposed based on this review experience. Moving towards a low-carbon future, more attention should be put to the demand side, especially with increasing importance of sector coupling and electrification. Also, to assess the profound uncertainties in the energy transition period, techniques besides scenario analysis can be applied. Explicit assessments on impacts of emerging topics, such as social oppositions to particular technologies and increased awareness of sustainability indicators besides clean energy, will add values for long-term decision making in the power markets. Last but not the least, best efforts of clarity and transparency should always be ensured.

中文翻译：

北欧电力市场的长期趋势：回顾

北欧电力系统将在未来碳中和的欧洲电力市场中发挥重要作用。本研究回顾了 2016 年至 2019 年间发布的 15 份北欧电力市场展望中的 43 种情景。大多数情况下，未来电价较高，与假设的天然气和排放配额价格密切相关。天然气和排放配额价格的潜在不确定性会传递给未来的电价。电价远高于风电成本，表明风电部署要么被低估，要么在很大程度上取决于非市场因素。用于展望的模型具有有限的部门覆盖范围，并且在计算资源和复杂性之间进行了权衡。根据这一审查经验，对未来展望出版物提出了一系列建议。迈向低碳未来，需要更多关注需求侧，尤其是在行业耦合和电气化日益重要的情况下。此外，为了评估能源转型期的深刻不确定性，可以应用情景分析之外的技术。对新兴主题的影响进行明确评估，例如社会对特定技术的反对以及对清洁能源之外的可持续性指标的认识的提高，将为电力市场的长期决策增加价值。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，应始终确保尽最大努力保持清晰和透明。可以应用场景分析之外的技术。对新兴主题的影响进行明确评估，例如社会对特定技术的反对以及对清洁能源之外的可持续性指标的认识的提高，将为电力市场的长期决策增加价值。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，应始终确保尽最大努力保持清晰和透明。可以应用场景分析之外的技术。对新兴主题的影响进行明确评估，例如社会对特定技术的反对以及对清洁能源之外的可持续性指标的认识的提高，将为电力市场的长期决策增加价值。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，应始终确保尽最大努力保持清晰和透明。

更新日期：2021-06-04

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