Many organizations have turned to “just-in-time” pay systems to manage fluctuations in demand for products and services. For example, the trucking industry commonly pays truck drivers by the mile, and retail organizations fluctuate hours available to work to align with holiday demand. Based on the Unfolding Model of Turnover, we propose that the pay volatility, that is, fluctuations in individual pay over time, created by such systems create shocks that initiate thoughts of leaving the organization. We propose that these thoughts increase turnover likelihood. We also propose that pay level and pay trajectory moderate the pay volatility and turnover relationship. Based on a large dataset containing information on objective pay and turnover for truck drivers over a period of 34 weeks, the results of this study support the role of pay volatility, pay level, and pay trajectory in affecting voluntary turnover. Specifically, the results show that all three factors predict turnover likelihood and that pay volatility and pay level interact to predict turnover likelihood. The findings indicate that pay volatility has organizational downsides due to its effects on employee turnover in addition to its known upsides (i.e., flexibility).

许多组织已经转向“即时”支付系统来管理产品和服务需求的波动。例如，卡车运输行业通常按英里支付卡车司机的工资，零售组织根据假期需求调整可用的工作时间。基于离职率展开模型，我们提出由此类系统造成的薪酬波动，即个人薪酬随时间的波动，会产生冲击，引发离开组织的想法。我们建议这些想法会增加离职的可能性。我们还建议薪酬水平和薪酬轨迹可以缓和薪酬波动性和离职率的关系。基于包含卡车司机在 34 周内的客观薪酬和离职信息的大型数据集，本研究的结果支持薪酬波动的作用，薪酬水平，以及影响自愿离职的薪酬轨迹。具体而言，结果表明所有三个因素都可以预测离职可能性，并且薪酬波动性和薪酬水平相互作用以预测离职可能性。研究结果表明，除了已知的好处（即灵活性）外，薪酬波动还会对员工流动产生影响，因此在组织上存在不利影响。