Expected crime rates that enable police forces to contrast recorded and anticipated spatial patterns of crime victimisation offer a valuable tool in evaluating the under-reporting of crime and inform/guide crime reduction initiatives. Prior to this study, police forces had no access to expected burglary maps at the neighbourhood level covering all parts of England and Wales. Drawing on analysis of the Crime Survey for England and Wales and employing a population terrain modelling approach, this paper utilises household and area characteristics to predict the mean residential burglary incidences per 1000 population across all neighbourhoods in England and Wales. The analysis identifies distinct differences in recorded and expected neighbourhood burglary incidences at the Output Area level, providing a catalyst for stimulating further reflection by police officers and crime analysts.

使警察部队能够对比记录的和预期的犯罪受害空间模式的预期犯罪率提供了一个宝贵的工具，用于评估犯罪的少报和告知/指导减少犯罪的举措。在此研究之前，警察部队无法获得预期的覆盖英格兰和威尔士所有地区的社区级别的入室盗窃地图。本文利用对英格兰和威尔士犯罪调查的分析并采用人口地形建模方法，利用家庭和地区特征来预测英格兰和威尔士所有社区每 1000 人的平均住宅入室盗窃发生率。该分析确定了输出区域级别记录的和预期的邻里入室盗窃发生率的明显差异，