This study produces the first-ever analysis in Nigeria on the asymmetric response of petroleum product prices to international crude oil prices by employing the hidden cointegration approach on quarterly data spanning from 1973Q1 to 2020Q2. After the preliminary tests of data description, unit root analysis and cointegration test, we find that positive and negative components of both the crude oil and petroleum prices move together in the long run. The result suggests evidence of long-run asymmetry in Nigeria. The empirical findings from both the long-run and short-run results show that petroleum prices in Nigeria respond asymmetrically to changes in crude oil prices. Specifically, the outcomes from the study reveal that positive changes (increase) in crude oil prices produce a larger and stronger effect on petroleum prices than the effect of negative changes (decrease) in crude oil prices indicating evidence of an asymmetric relationship between the two prices in Nigeria. Thus, the findings confirm the existence of the rocket and feather hypothesis in the retail energy market in Nigeria. Overall, the study finds convincing evidence to support the hypothesis of “rocket and feather” in the pass-through effect of crude oil prices on petroleum prices in Nigeria. The study advocates for more government intervention in the energy market to reduce the welfare loss associated with an increase in crude oil prices on the citizens.

本研究通过对 1973 年第一季度至 2020 年第二季度的季度数据采用隐藏协整方法，对尼日利亚的石油产品价格对国际原油价格的不对称反应进行了首次分析。经过数据描述、单位根分析和协整检验的初步检验，我们发现原油和石油价格的正负分量在长期内是共同移动的。结果表明尼日利亚长期不对称的证据。长期和短期结果的实证结果表明，尼日利亚的石油价格对原油价格变化的反应不对称。具体来说，研究结果表明，与原油价格的负面变化（下降）相比，原油价格的积极变化（上涨）对石油价格产生更大、更强的影响，这表明尼日利亚两种价格之间存在不对称关系的证据. 因此，调查结果证实了尼日利亚零售能源市场中火箭和羽毛假说的存在。总体而言，该研究发现了令人信服的证据，支持在原油价格对尼日利亚石油价格的传递效应中“火箭和羽毛”的假设。该研究主张政府对能源市场进行更多干预，以减少与原油价格上涨相关的公民福利损失。