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A novel model to manage air cargo disruptions caused by global catastrophes such as Covid-19
Journal of Air Transport Management ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-04 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2021.102086
Ibrahim Abdelfadeel Shaban 1, 2 , F T S Chan 2 , S H Chung 2
Affiliation  

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has drastically disrupted the air cargo industry. This disruption has taken many directions, one of which is the demand imbalance which occurs due to the sudden change in the cargo capacity, as well as demand. Therefore, the random change leads to excessive demand in some routes (hot-selling routes), while some other routes suffer from a big shortage of demand (underutilized routes). Routes are substitutable when there are several adjacent airports in the Origin & Destination (O&D) market. In this market, demand imbalance between substitutable routes occurs because of the above reasons. To tackle the demand imbalance problem, a novel model is introduced to estimate the quantity combinations which maintains the balance between underutilized and hot-selling routes. This model is a variant of the classic Cournot model which captures different quantity scenarios in the form of the best response for each route compared to the other. We then cultivate the model by integrating the Puppet Cournot game with the quantity discount policy. The quantity discount policy is an incentive which motivates the freight forwarders to increase their orders in the underutilized routes. After conducting numerical experiments, the results reveal that the profit can increase up to 25% by using the quantity discount. However, the quantity discount model is only applicable when the profit increase in the hot-selling route is greater than the profit decrease in the underutilized route.



中文翻译:

一种管理由 Covid-19 等全球灾难引起的航空货运中断的新模型

COVID-19 大流行的爆发严重扰乱了航空货运业。这种中断有很多方向,其中之一是由于货运能力和需求的突然变化而导致的需求失衡。因此,随机变化导致一些航线(热销航线)的需求过多,而另一些航线则需求严重不足(未充分利用的航线)。当始发地和目的地 (O&D) 市场中有多个相邻机场时,航线是可替代的。在这个市场上,由于上​​述原因,可替代航线之间的需求不平衡。为了解决需求不平衡问题,引入了一种新的模型来估计数量组合,以保持未充分利用和热销路线之间的平衡。该模型是经典古诺模型的变体,它以每条路线与其他路线的最佳响应的形式捕获不同的数量场景。然后我们通过将 Puppet Cournot 游戏与数量折扣政策相结合来培养模型。数量折扣政策是一种激励,促使货运代理在未充分利用的航线上增加订单。经过数值实验,结果表明,使用数量折扣最多可以增加 25% 的利润。但是,数量折扣模型仅适用于热销路线的利润增加大于未充分利用路线的利润减少的情况。然后我们通过将 Puppet Cournot 游戏与数量折扣政策相结合来培养模型。数量折扣政策是一种激励,促使货运代理在未充分利用的航线上增加订单。经过数值实验,结果表明,使用数量折扣最多可以增加 25% 的利润。但是,数量折扣模型仅适用于热销路线的利润增加大于未充分利用路线的利润减少的情况。然后我们通过将 Puppet Cournot 游戏与数量折扣政策相结合来培养模型。数量折扣政策是一种激励,促使货运代理在未充分利用的航线上增加订单。经过数值实验,结果表明,使用数量折扣最多可以增加 25% 的利润。但是,数量折扣模型仅适用于热销路线的利润增加大于未充分利用路线的利润减少的情况。结果表明,通过使用数量折扣,利润最多可以增加 25%。但是,数量折扣模型仅适用于热销路线的利润增加大于未充分利用路线的利润减少的情况。结果表明,通过使用数量折扣,利润最多可以增加 25%。但是,数量折扣模型仅适用于热销路线的利润增加大于未充分利用路线的利润减少的情况。

更新日期:2021-06-07
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