Dose–response modelling was performed for several infectious disease viruses using the exponential, exact beta-Poisson, and approximate beta-Poisson models using existing datasets of animal infections. The exact beta-Poisson model was found to provide the best fit of the three models. The aerosol transmission route was found to require the lowest dose to cause infection compared to the intra-nasal and oral transmission routes for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) and H9N2 avian influenza virus. Foot and mouth disease virus required lower doses with the aerosol transmission route than the intra-nasal transmission route. Liquid oral transmission required lower doses than feed transmission to cause infection for African swine fever virus and overall oral transmission required low doses to cause infection by porcine epidemic and diarrhoea virus. A computational fluid dynamics simulation was coupled with the dose–response modelling to simulate aerosol transmission of PRRSV in two experimental case studies. The coupled model predicted a probability of infection between 82% and 100% using the exact beta-Poisson model, which was in good agreement with the observed rate of infections in the two experimental case studies (84% and 90%).

使用现有的动物感染数据集，使用指数、精确β-泊松和近似β-泊松模型对几种传染病病毒进行了剂量反应建模。精确的 beta-Poisson 模型被发现提供了三个模型的最佳拟合。与猪繁殖与呼吸综合征病毒 (PRRSV) 和 H9N2 禽流感病毒的鼻内和口腔传播途径相比，气溶胶传播途径需要最低剂量才能引起感染。口蹄疫病毒通过气溶胶传播途径所需的剂量低于鼻内传播途径。液体口服传播需要比饲料传播低的剂量才能引起非洲猪瘟病毒感染，而整体口服传播需要低剂量才能引起猪流行病和腹泻病毒感染。在两个实验案例研究中，计算流体动力学模拟与剂量反应模型相结合，以模拟 PRRSV 的气溶胶传播。耦合模型使用精确的 beta-Poisson 模型预测了 82% 和 100% 之间的感染概率，这与两个实验案例研究中观察到的感染率（84% 和 90%）非常吻合。