We develop a potentially widely applicable framework for analysing the vulnerability, resilience risk and exposure of chondrichthyan species to all types of anthropogenic stressors in the marine environment. The approach combines the three components of widely applied vulnerability analysis (exposure, sensitivity and adaptability) (ESA) with three components (exposure, susceptibility and productivity) (ESP) of our adaptation of productivity–susceptibility analysis (PSA). We apply our 12-step ESA‒ESP analysis to evaluate the vulnerability (risk of a marked reduction of the population) of each of 132 chondrichthyan species in the Exclusive Economic Zone of southern Australia. The vulnerability relates to a species’ resilience to a spatial (or suitability) reduction of its habitats from exposure to up to eight climate change stressors. Vulnerability also relates to anthropogenic mortality added to natural mortality from exposure to the stressors of five types of fishing and seven other types of anthropogenic hazards. We use biological attributes as risk factors to evaluate risk related to resilience at the species or higher taxonomic level. We evaluate each species’ exposure to anthropogenic stressors by assigning it to one of six ecological groups based on its lifestyle (demersal versus pelagic) and habitat, defined by bathymetric range and substrates. We evaluate vulnerability for 11 scenarios: 2000–2006 when fishing effort peaked; 2018 following a decade of fisheries management reforms; low, medium and high standard future carbon dioxide equivalent emissions scenarios; and their six possible climate–fishing combinations. Our results demonstrate the value of refugia from fishing and how climate change exacerbates the risks from fishing.

中文翻译：

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澳大利亚南部软骨鱼类动物群对气候变化、渔业和其他人为危害压力源的生态脆弱性

我们开发了一个潜在广泛适用的框架，用于分析软骨鱼类物种对海洋环境中所有类型的人为压力源的脆弱性、复原力风险和暴露情况。该方法将广泛应用的脆弱性分析（暴露、敏感性和适应性）（ESA）的三个组成部分与我们对生产力-敏感性分析（PSA）适应性的三个组成部分（暴露、敏感性和生产力）（ESP）结合起来。我们应用 12 步 ESA-ESP 分析来评估澳大利亚南部专属经济区 132 种软骨鱼类中每一种的脆弱性（种群显着减少的风险）。脆弱性与物种对其栖息地因暴露于多达八种气候变化压力因素而导致的空间（或适宜性）减少的适应能力有关。脆弱性还涉及由于暴露于五种类型的捕鱼和七种其他类型的人为危害的压力源而导致的自然死亡率之外的人为死亡率。我们使用生物属性作为风险因素来评估与物种或更高分类水平的弹性相关的风险。我们通过根据其生活方式（底层与远洋）和栖息地（由测深范围和底物定义）将其分配到六个生态组之一来评估每个物种对人为压力源的暴露。我们评估了 11 种情景的脆弱性：2000-2006 年捕捞量达到顶峰时；经过十年渔业管理改革后的 2018 年；低、中、高标准的未来二氧化碳当量排放情景；以及它们六种可能的气候-捕鱼组合。