In this paper, we evaluate a single-index polymorphic production function that relates agricultural output to temperature and precipitation. The advantage of this new approach to measuring agricultural vulnerability under climatic change is that a single-index measure of vulnerability can capture a range of climate responses including plateau effects. The approach identifies plateau effects in the crop yield-weather relationship and provides overall fits consistent with higher-order polynomial fitting. We apply the technique to corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton at the USA county level. We illustrate its computation and use as a critical policy variable.

中文翻译：

---

气候变化下农作物优先目标的脆弱性指数

在本文中，我们评估了将农业产量与温度和降水联系起来的单指数多态生产函数。这种衡量气候变化下农业脆弱性的新方法的优势在于，脆弱性的单一指数测量可以捕捉包括高原效应在内的一系列气候响应。该方法识别作物产量-天气关系中的高原效应，并提供与高阶多项式拟合一致的整体拟合。我们将该技术应用于美国县级的玉米、大豆、小麦和棉花。我们说明了它的计算和作为一个关键的策略变量的使用。