Dominant International Relations theories—realism/neorealism, liberalism/neoliberalism, and constructivism—have so far developed no rigorous theoretical attempts to interpret the Arab Spring, though some marginal efforts have been made to critique the failure of realism to interpret this historical development. This article presents a neorealist interpretation of the Arab Spring focusing on the Syrian civil war, where conflicts between the pro- and anti-status quo forces have unfolded in alignments and counter-alignments centering around rival domestic and external groups. To explain the involvements of rival alliances in the post-2011 Syrian conflict, namely, the United States–Saudi Arabia–Israel alliance and the Russia–Iran–Syria alliance, this analysis employs neorealist theories of alliance formation—the balance of power and balance of threat theories—as articulated by Kenneth Waltz and Stephen Walt, respectively. The dynamics of these formations in Syria lend more support to Walt’s theory that states balance against threats rather than against power. The complex nature and dynamics of the Syrian war, however, calls for refinements of Walt’s balance of threat theory. Accordingly, the article also explores various refinements of Walt’s theory to better explain future complex civil wars involving highly polarized domestic and external parties.

占主导地位的国际关系理论——现实主义/新现实主义、自由主义/新自由主义和建构主义——迄今为止还没有对解释阿拉伯之春进行严格的理论尝试，尽管已经做出了一些边缘努力来批评现实主义未能解释这一历史发展。本文以叙利亚内战为重点，对阿拉伯之春进行了新现实主义解释，在这场战争中，支持和反对现状的力量之间的冲突在以国内外敌对团体为中心的结盟和反结盟中展开。为了解释敌对联盟在 2011 年后叙利亚冲突中的参与，即美国-沙特阿拉伯-以色列联盟和俄罗斯-伊朗-叙利亚联盟，这种分析采用了新现实主义的联盟形成理论——权力平衡和威胁平衡理论——分别由肯尼思·沃尔兹和斯蒂芬·沃尔特阐述。叙利亚这些组织的动态为沃尔特的理论提供了更多支持，即国家平衡的是威胁而不是权力。然而，叙利亚战争的复杂性质和动态要求改进沃尔特的威胁平衡理论。因此，本文还探讨了沃尔特理论的各种改进，以更好地解释未来涉及高度极化的国内外各方的复杂内战。然而，叙利亚战争的复杂性质和动态要求改进沃尔特的威胁平衡理论。因此，本文还探讨了沃尔特理论的各种改进，以更好地解释未来涉及高度极化的国内外各方的复杂内战。然而，叙利亚战争的复杂性质和动态要求改进沃尔特的威胁平衡理论。因此，本文还探讨了沃尔特理论的各种改进，以更好地解释未来涉及高度极化的国内外各方的复杂内战。