The influence of sea-level pressure (SLP) of Arabian Sea on variability of summer monsoon over northern Pakistan has been discussed in this paper. This study will examine the impact of SLP of Arabian Sea on the summer monsoon of northern Pakistan using composite and correlation analysis, principal component analysis (PCA), and singular value decomposition analysis (SVDA). The correlations of SLP index and first principal component of SLP with the regional rainfall over the monsoon season are respectively − 0.43 and − 0.44 (both significant at 5% level). The first leading SVD mode is found to be the most important because it is alone explaining 95.6% of the total square covariance. Moreover, canonical correlation analysis (CCA) has been applied on the regions that have correlations significant at 5% level on heterogeneous correlation maps to construct forecasting equation using canonical correlations. The correlation between the left and right expansion coefficients for the first leading canonical mode is 0.83 which is higher than in the case of the first leading SVD mode. Furthermore, the composites show that the physical mechanisms are consistent with empirically determined relationships.

本文讨论了阿拉伯海海平面压力（SLP）对巴基斯坦北部夏季风变率的影响。本研究将使用复合和相关分析、主成分分析 (PCA) 和奇异值分解分析 (SVDA) 来检验阿拉伯海 SLP 对巴基斯坦北部夏季风的影响。SLP指数和SLP第一主成分与季风季节区域降雨量的相关性分别为-0.43和-0.44（均在5%水平上显着）。发现第一个领先的 SVD 模式是最重要的，因为它单独解释了总平方协方差的 95.6%。而且，典型相关分析（CCA）已应用于在异质相关图上具有5％水平显着相关性的区域，以使用典型相关构建预测方程。第一前导正则模式的左右展开系数之间的相关系数为 0.83，高于第一前导 SVD 模式的情况。此外，复合材料表明物理机制与经验确定的关系一致。