Prediction of changing predator–prey interactions under warming: A simulation study using two aphid–ladybird systems,Ecological Research

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Prediction of changing predator–prey interactions under warming: A simulation study using two aphid–ladybird systems
Ecological Research ( IF 1.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-03 , DOI: 10.1111/1440-1703.12243
Minyoung Lee ₁ , Yongeun Kim ₂ , Jung‐Joon Park ₃ , Kijong Cho ₁

Affiliation

Predator–prey interactions are key factors for understanding ecosystem structure and function. Global warming alters the dynamics and stability of predator and prey populations in the long term. Extreme temperatures can also lead to short-term population outbreaks and collapses. Thus, it is necessary to consider time scales when predicting warming effects on predator–prey interactions. Two aphid–ladybird systems, Myzus persicae–Coccinella septempunctata (M-C) and Aphis gossypii–C. septempunctata (A-C), were investigated. Using a temperature-dependent predator–prey model, the short- (SIS, daily interactions) and long-term interaction strength (LIS, interactions after reaching a persistent state) were quantified under different temperatures based on a dynamic index. SIS and LIS increased with temperature, but the patterns and magnitudes of the two systems differed. SIS increased linearly and exponentially in the A-C and M-C system, respectively. However, the SISs in the A-C system were stronger than those in the M-C system under most temperature ranges. LIS increased linearly with temperature in both systems; its values in the M-C system were always larger than those in the A-C system. The abruptly increasing SIS in the M-C system caused population collapse, which was the main reason for the magnitude reversal between the SISs and LISs of the two systems. The A-C system did not collapse, but a decoupled SIS and subsequent aphid outbreak were temporarily observed under extreme temperatures. Understanding how time scales influence interaction strengths may be critical to predicting population stability and fluctuations in ecosystems.

中文翻译：

变暖下捕食者-猎物相互作用变化的预测：使用两个蚜虫-瓢虫系统的模拟研究

捕食者-猎物相互作用是了解生态系统结构和功能的关键因素。从长远来看，全球变暖会改变捕食者和猎物种群的动态和稳定性。极端温度还可能导致短期人口爆发和崩溃。因此，在预测变暖对捕食者-猎物相互作用的影响时，有必要考虑时间尺度。两种蚜虫-瓢虫系统，桃蚜-七星瓢虫(MC) 和棉蚜- C. septempunctata(AC)，进行了调查。使用依赖温度的捕食者-猎物模型，基于动态指数在不同温度下量化短期（SIS，日常相互作用）和长期相互作用强度（LIS，达到持续状态后的相互作用）。SIS 和 LIS 随温度升高而增加，但两个系统的模式和幅度不同。SIS 分别在 AC 和 MC 系统中线性和指数增加。然而，在大多数温度范围内，AC 系统中的 SIS 比 MC 系统中的 SIS 更强。LIS 在两个系统中都随温度线性增加；它在 MC 系统中的值总是大于在 AC 系统中的值。MC系统中SIS突然增加导致人口崩溃，这是两个系统的 SIS 和 LIS 之间幅度反转的主要原因。空调系统没有崩溃，但在极端温度下暂时观察到了脱钩的 SIS 和随后的蚜虫爆发。了解时间尺度如何影响相互作用强度对于预测生态系统中的种群稳定性和波动至关重要。

更新日期：2021-06-03

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