This study assesses a theoretical carbon dioxide capture and utilisation (CCU) potential for a broad spectrum of 55 CCU pathways for Germany in 2030, encompassing direct utilisation of CO₂ for biomass cultivation or in techno-physical processes and its conversion to energy carriers, chemicals and inorganic carbonates. For each good or production process that could technically substitute fossil carbon sources by renewable ones, Germany-specific production data is collected and combined with its corresponding CO₂ conversion factors. By doing so, theoretical potentials for CO₂ consumption are determined per pathway, aggregated to a total theoretical CO₂ demand, which is then compared to German CO₂ emissions, as a proxy for potential CO₂ supply. The results show that the theoretical CO₂ demand of all considered CCU pathways amounts to about 234–423 Mt CO₂ p.a. in 2030 including energy carriers representing the largest share of more than 75 %. This theoretical demand exceeds the potential CO₂ provision from possible biogenic and industrial point sources. Considering exclusively CCU pathways, being technologically mature at present state, only 9–13 Mt CO₂ p.a. could be consumed in 2030, but a large variety of CCU pathways showing high consumption potentials are close to market maturity.

本研究评估了 2030 年德国 55 个 CCU 途径的理论二氧化碳捕获和利用 (CCU) 潜力，包括直接利用 CO ₂进行生物质种植或技术物理过程及其转化为能源载体、化学品和无机碳酸盐。对于在技术上可以用可再生能源替代化石碳源的每一种商品或生产过程，收集特定于德国的生产数据并结合其相应的 CO ₂转化系数。通过这样做，每个途径确定CO ₂消耗的理论潜力，汇总到总理论 CO ₂需求，然后与德国 CO ₂进行比较排放量，作为潜在 CO ₂供应的代理。结果表明，2030 年所有考虑的 CCU 路径的理论 CO ₂需求量约为 234-423 Mt CO ₂ pa，其中能量载体占最大份额，超过 75%。这一理论需求超过了来自可能的生物源和工业点源的潜在 CO ₂供应。仅考虑 CCU 途径，目前技术成熟，2030 年只能消耗9-13 Mt CO ₂ pa，但显示出高消费潜力的多种 CCU 途径已接近市场成熟度。