We evaluate the NO_x and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trends of the Heavy-Duty (HD) transportation sector in California’s South Coast region, under four future scenarios with varying deployment trends of near-zero-emission vehicles and zero-emission vehicles (NZEV and ZEVs) over two decades. Modeling analysis using original vehicle population projections and real-world NO_x emission factors, are used to estimate emissions over the 2020 to 2040 timeframe. Analysis shows that emissions are significantly impacted by the rate of deployment of cleaner technology options. GHG results show that very aggressive deployment of low carbon technologies is necessary to achieve 2040 emission targets. The results show accelerating the fleet turnover to be a more important NO_x control strategy than dividing the vehicle replacement between NZEVs and ZEVs. The analysis suggests that Heavy-Heavy-Duty (HHD) NZEVs should be encouraged in the near to mid-term, and even long-term, if operated on renewable natural gas.

我们评估了加利福尼亚州南海岸地区重型 (HD) 运输部门的 NO _x和温室气体 (GHG) 排放趋势，在四种未来情景下，近零排放车辆和零排放车辆的部署趋势各不相同（ NZEV 和 ZEV）超过二十年。使用原车人口预测和真实世界NO建模分析_X排放因素，被用来估计在2020至2040年的时间内排放。分析表明，排放量受到更清洁技术选项的部署速度的显着影响。温室气体结果表明，要实现 2040 年的排放目标，必须非常积极地部署低碳技术。结果表明加速船队营业额是一个比较重要的NO _X控制策略而不是在 NZEV 和 ZEV 之间划分车辆更换。分析表明，如果使用可再生天然气运营，应在近期到中期甚至长期鼓励重型 (HHD) NZEV。