ABSTRACT

In this paper, we employ a model using spatially lagged explanatory variables (SLX) to model poverty in the rural South – a region with large pockets of counties with persistent and high poverty. The SLX model allows for separation of spillovers from non-metro counties versus those from metro counties, something missing from the existing literature. We employ various economic and demographic variables to model poverty rates pre- and post-Great Recession. We also estimate separate models for non-metro counties and metro counties. There were no significant impacts from the local metro county before the recession and no significant local impacts in non-metro counties after the recession. Before the recession, factors from surrounding metro counties contributed greater impact on both non-metro and metro poverty. After the recession, there were more significant factors from surrounding non-metro counties that displayed a greater impact. The results suggest that poverty is unique across space and time. Poverty reduction programs should not only adopt a discretionary strategy that accounts for geographical variation, but also consider the timing of business cycles. Our research suggests a universal, all-encompassing strategy toward poverty may be less than ideal in the rural south.

摘要

在本文中，我们采用了一个使用空间滞后解释变量 (SLX) 的模型来模拟南部农村地区的贫困状况——该地区拥有大量持续和高度贫困的县。SLX 模型允许将来自非地铁县的溢出效应与来自地铁县的溢出效应区分开来，这在现有文献中是缺失的。我们采用各种经济和人口变量来模拟大萧条前后的贫困率。我们还估计了非地铁县和地铁县的单独模型。经济衰退前当地地铁县没有显着影响，经济衰退后非地铁县也没有显着的当地影响。在经济衰退之前，来自周边地铁县的因素对非地铁和地铁贫困的影响更大。经济衰退之后，周边非地铁县的影响较大的因素较多。结果表明，贫困在空间和时间上是独一无二的。减贫计划不仅应采用考虑地域差异的酌情策略，还应考虑商业周期的时间安排。我们的研究表明，在南方农村地区，一个普遍的、包罗万象的贫困战略可能并不理想。