We examine firms’ employment adjustments immediately after the imposition of stringent lockdown in March 2020. In doing so, we use monthly administrative data, and take value-added tax payment changes as a proxy for the demand shock. We merge data with COVID-19 tests, classified by economic activity, and employ a fixed effects instrumental variable regression. We find that all sized firms in the manufacturing sector reduced employment more if they had uncovered tax liabilities before the lockdown. Among small firms, real estate and service sector firms downsized more rapidly. While employment changes are rather modest, this very early evidence points to the need to address liquidity needs and firm pre-conditions among capital-intensive and services firms and, in particular, small businesses, to avoid employment losses.

Plain English Summary The administrative data from the first COVID-19 lockdown in 2020 point to the need to address liquidity requirements among manufacturers, capital-intensive and service firms, and, in particular, small businesses to avoid subsequent employment losses.

While there is a vast literature on firms’ adaptation and adjustments in the face of adverse shocks, firms’ reactions and the macroeconomic implications of stringent, government-imposed lockdowns are much less understood due to their novelty. We analyze businesses’ responses to the first and very stringent lockdown in March 2020 by making use of monthly administrative data and taking value-added tax payment changes as a proxy for the demand shock. We exploit variation in the sectoral differences across small, medium, and large firms. A simple average employment adjustment was non-negative in agriculture, construction, information and communication, and public administration sectors in our sample. By merging data with COVID-19 tests, classified by economic activity, and employing a fixed-effects instrumental variable regression, we find that all sized firms in the manufacturing sector reduced employment more if they had uncovered tax liabilities before the lockdown. Among small firms, real estate and service sector firms downsized more rapidly. While employment changes are rather modest, this very early evidence about businesses’ reactions to COVID-19-induced uncertainty and activity restrictions points to the need to address business liquidity needs early on. Another policy message concerns the importance of firm pre-conditions among capital-intensive and services firms and, in particular, small businesses to avoid subsequent employment losses.

我们在 2020 年 3 月实施严格封锁后立即检查企业的就业调整。在此过程中，我们使用月度行政数据，并将增值税支付变化作为需求冲击的代理。我们将数据与 COVID-19 测试合并，按经济活动分类，并采用固定效应工具变量回归。我们发现，制造业中所有规模的公司如果在封锁之前发现了税收负债，就会减少更多的就业。在小型企业中，房地产和服务业企业的缩减速度更快。虽然就业变化相当温和，但这一早期证据表明需要解决资本密集型和服务型企业，尤其是小企业的流动性需求和企业先决条件，以避免失业。

简单的英语摘要2020 年第一次 COVID-19 封锁的行政数据表明，需要解决制造商、资本密集型和服务公司，尤其是小企业之间的流动性要求，以避免随后的就业损失。

尽管有大量关于企业面对不利冲击时的适应和调整的文献，但由于其新颖性，企业的反应和政府实施的严格封锁对宏观经济的影响却鲜为人知。我们通过使用月度行政数据并将增值税支付变化作为需求冲击的代理来分析企业对 2020 年 3 月第一次非常严格的封锁的反应。我们利用了小型、中型和大型公司之间部门差异的差异。在我们的样本中，农业、建筑、信息和通信以及公共管理部门的简单平均就业调整是非负的。通过将数据与 COVID-19 测试合并，按经济活动分类，并采用固定效应工具变量回归，我们发现，制造业中所有规模的公司如果在封锁前发现税收负债，就会减少更多的就业。在小型企业中，房地产和服务业企业的缩减速度更快。虽然就业变化相当温和，但关于企业对 COVID-19 引起的不确定性和活动限制的反应的这一非常早期的证据表明，需要尽早解决企业流动性需求。另一个政策信息涉及资本密集型和服务型企业，特别是小型企业，以避免随后的就业损失的企业先决条件的重要性。虽然就业变化相当温和，但关于企业对 COVID-19 引起的不确定性和活动限制的反应的这一非常早期的证据表明，需要尽早解决企业流动性需求。另一个政策信息涉及资本密集型和服务型企业，特别是小型企业，以避免随后的就业损失的企业先决条件的重要性。虽然就业变化相当温和，但关于企业对 COVID-19 引起的不确定性和活动限制的反应的这一非常早期的证据表明，需要尽早解决企业流动性需求。另一个政策信息涉及资本密集型和服务型企业，特别是小型企业，以避免随后的就业损失的企业先决条件的重要性。