Making predictions is an adaptive feature of the cognitive system, as prediction errors are used to adjust the knowledge they stemmed from. Here, we investigated the effect of prediction errors on belief update in an ideological context. In Study 1, 704 Cloud Research participants first evaluated a set of beliefs and then either made predictions about evidence associated with the beliefs and received feedback or were just presented with the evidence. Finally, they reevaluated the initial beliefs. Study 2, which involved a U.S. Census–matched sample of 1,073 Cloud Research participants, was a replication of Study 1. We found that the size of prediction errors linearly predicts belief update and that making large errors leads to more belief update than does not engaging in prediction. Importantly, the effects held for both Democrats and Republicans across all belief types (Democratic, Republican, neutral). We discuss these findings in the context of the misinformation epidemic.

做出预测是认知系统的一个适应性特征，因为预测错误被用来调整它们所源自的知识。在这里，我们研究了在意识形态背景下预测误差对信念更新的影响。在研究 1 中，704 名 Cloud Research 参与者首先评估了一组信念，然后对与这些信念相关的证据进行预测并收到反馈，或者只是获得了证据。最后，他们重新评估了最初的信念。研究 2 涉及 1,073 名 Cloud Research 参与者的美国人口普查匹配样本，是研究 1 的复制。我们发现预测误差的大小线性预测信念更新，并且犯大错误比不参与会导致更多的信念更新在预测中。重要的，所有信仰类型（民主党、共和党、中立）对民主党和共和党的影响。我们在错误信息流行的背景下讨论这些发现。