ABSTRACT

Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari continues to insist that Boko Haram has been been ‘technically defeated’, claiming that peace has returned to the Lake Chad Basin. However, reports from the media and people living in affected areas indicate otherwise. Based on analysis of secondary sources and a review of the literature, this article explores how Boko Haram has managed to survive the overwhelming military pressure of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) arrayed against it. Resilience theory informs the analysis. The study’s findings suggest a direct link between Boko Haram’s resilience and its organisational structure, civilian sympathisers, resource flows and intelligence gathering, on the one hand, and corruption and sabotage within the Nigerian military on the other. In addition, Boko Haram benefits from its links with international terrorist networks. The article argues that understanding these factors, and adjusting the counterinsurgency accordingly, is critical to bringing an end to the Boko Haram insurgency.

摘要

尼日利亚总统穆罕默杜·布哈里继续坚称博科圣地已“在技术上被击败”，声称乍得湖盆地已恢复和平。然而，来自媒体和生活在受影响地区的人们的报道表明情况并非如此。基于对二手资料的分析和文献回顾，本文探讨了博科圣地如何在多国联合特遣部队 (MNJTF) 的压倒性军事压力下幸存下来。弹性理论为分析提供信息。该研究的结果表明，一方面博科圣地的复原力与其组织结构、平民同情者、资源流动和情报收集之间存在直接联系，另一方面与尼日利亚军队内部的腐败和破坏活动之间存在直接联系。此外，博科圣地受益于其与国际恐怖主义网络的联系。文章认为，了解这些因素并相应地调整反叛乱，对于结束博科圣地叛乱至关重要。