ABSTRACT

Arms races are linked in the public conscience to potential violence. Following gas discoveries in eastern Mediterranean, Greece and Turkey nearly came to blows in August 2020 and both states have enacted military expansion plans, further risking escalation. We present a novel approach to study the effect of military build-ups on dispute intensity, using monthly data on Turkish incursions into Greek-claimed airspace. Because airspace claims feature strongly in the dispute, these contestations represent an appropriate measure of the intensity with which Turkey pursues the conflict. Theoretically, we suggest that bilateral factors drive this intensity. We argue that increased Greek military capabilities deter incursions whereas increased Turkish military capabilities fuel them. Results from time-series models support the second expectation. Consequently, the study provides a novel methodological approach to studying interstate conflict intensity and shines new light on escalation dynamics in the Greek-Turkish dispute.

摘要

军备竞赛在公众良心上与潜在的暴力联系在一起。继地中海东部发现天然气后，希腊和土耳其在 2020 年 8 月几乎遭遇打击，两国都制定了军事扩张计划，有进一步升级的风险。我们提出了一种新颖的方法来研究军事集结对争端强度的影响，使用土耳其入侵希腊领空的月度数据。由于空域主张在争端中占有重要地位，这些争论代表了土耳其追求冲突强度的适当衡量标准。从理论上讲，我们认为双边因素推动了这种强度。我们认为，增强的希腊军事能力可以阻止入侵，而增强的土耳其军事能力则助长了入侵。时间序列模型的结果支持第二个期望。