We examine how nutrient load compensation could help a firm expand its production when production is a source of nutrient loads, threatening the ecological status of a water body. We ask whether compensation is technically feasible and whether it can be made in an ecologically sustainable way. Credits for compensation may be provided by point or nonpoint sources. We apply our approach to the case of Finnish Lake Kallavesi, where the Supreme Administrative Court, based on the Water Framework Directive, refused an environmental permit for a plan to build a large pulp mill. We employ a lake nutrient response model to determine water quality using probabilistic analysis of the ecological status of the lake. The supply potential of phosphorus credits from point sources was too low to keep the lake in good ecological status with at least 80% probability and must be complemented by credits from agricultural nonpoint sources. Using a trade ratio of 1:1.2 to reflect uncertainty on credits from nonpoint sources suggests that the reduction in agricultural phosphorus loading would suffice on its own to ensure the good ecological status by 90% probability. The cost of buying nutrient reduction credits would be at most 2% of the investment.

我们研究了当生产是营养负荷的来源，威胁到水体的生态状况时，营养负荷补偿如何帮助公司扩大生产。我们询问补偿在技术上是否可行，是否可以以生态可持续的方式进行。补偿信用可以由点源或非点源提供。我们将我们的方法应用于芬兰 Kallavesi 湖的案例，在该案例中，最高行政法院根据水框架指令拒绝了建造大型纸浆厂计划的环境许可。我们采用湖泊养分响应模型，通过对湖泊生态状况的概率分析来确定水质。点源磷信用的供应潜力太低，无法以至少 80% 的概率保持湖泊处于良好的生态状态，必须辅以农业非点源信用。使用 1:1.2 的贸易比率来反映非点源信用的不确定性表明，农业磷负荷的减少本身足以保证良好生态状况的概率为 90%。购买营养减少信用的成本最多为投资的 2%。