This paper estimates the seasonal and zonal \({\mathrm{CO}}_{2}\) marginal emissions factors (MEFs) from electricity production in the Italian electricity system. The inclusion of the zonal configuration of the Italian wholesale power market leads to a complete measurement of marginal emission factors which takes into account the heterogeneous distribution of RES power plants, their penetration rate and their variability within the zonal power generation mix. This article relies on a flexible econometric approach that includes the fractional cointegration methodology to incorporate the typical features of long-memory processes into the estimation of MEFs. We find high variability in annual MEFs estimated at the zonal level. Sardinia reports the highest MEF (0.7189 \({\mathrm{tCO}}_{2}\)/MWh), followed by the Center South (0.7022 \({\mathrm{tCO}}_{2}\)/MWh), the Center North (0.4236 \({\mathrm{tCO}}_{2}\)/MWh), the North (0.2018 \({\mathrm{tCO}}_{2}\)/MWh) and Sicily (0.146 \({\mathrm{tCO}}_{2}\)/MWh). The seasonal analysis also shows a large variability of MEFs in each zone across time. The heterogeneity of results leads us to recommend that policymakers consider the zonal configuration of the power market and the large seasonal variability related to carbon emissions and electricity generation when designing incentives for renewable energy sources expansion and for achieving emission reduction targets.

本文估算了意大利电力系统电力生产的季节性和区域性\({\mathrm{CO}}_{2}\)边际排放因子 (MEF)。包括意大利批发电力市场的区域配置导致对边际排放因子的完整测量，其中考虑了可再生能源发电厂的异质分布、它们的渗透率以及它们在区域发电组合中的可变性。本文依赖于一种灵活的计量经济学方法，该方法包括分数协整方法，以将长记忆过程的典型特征纳入 MEF 的估计中。我们发现在区域层面估计的年度 MEF 的变异性很大。撒丁岛报告最高 MEF (0.7189 \({\mathrm{tCO}}_{2}\)/MWh)，其次是中南 (0.7022 \({\mathrm{tCO}}_{2}\) /MWh)，中北 (0.4236 \({\mathrm{tCO}}_{2}\) /MWh)、北部 (0.2018 \({\mathrm{tCO}}_{2}\) /MWh) 和西西里岛 (0.146 \({\mathrm{tCO}}_{2}\) /MWh)。季节性分析还显示，每个区域的 MEF 随时间变化很大。结果的异质性使我们建议政策制定者在设计可再生能源扩张和实现减排目标的激励措施时考虑电力市场的区域配置以及与碳排放和发电相关的巨大季节性变化。