The 16 April 2016 earthquake in Ecuador exposed the significant weaknesses concerning the methodological designs to compute—from an economic standpoint—the consequences of a natural hazard-related disaster for productive exchanges and the accumulation of capital in Ecuador. This study addressed one of these challenges with an innovative ex ante model to measure the partial and net short-term effects of a natural hazard-related catastrophe from an interregional perspective, with the 16 April 2016 earthquake serving as a case study. In general, the specified and estimated model follows the approach of the extended Miyazawa model, which endogenizes consumption demand in a standard input–output model with the subnational interrelations and resulting multipliers. Due to the country’s limitations in its regional account records the input–output matrices for each province of Ecuador had to be estimated, which then allowed transactions carried out between any two sectors within or outside a given province to be identified by means of the RAS method. The estimations provide evidence that the net short-term impact on the national accounts was not significant, and under some of the simulated scenarios, based on the official information with respect to earthquake management, the impact may even have had a positive effect on the growth of the national product during 2016.

2016 年 4 月 16 日的厄瓜多尔地震暴露了从经济角度计算自然灾害相关灾害对厄瓜多尔生产交流和资本积累的后果的方法设计的重大弱点。本研究通过创新的事前模型解决了其中一个挑战，以从区域间的角度衡量与自然灾害相关的灾难的部分和净短期影响，并以 2016 年 4 月 16 日的地震作为案例研究。一般而言，指定和估计模型遵循扩展宫泽模型的方法，该模型将标准投入产出模型中的消费需求内生化，并具有地方相互关系和由此产生的乘数。由于该国在其区域账户记录方面的限制，必须估计厄瓜多尔每个省的投入-产出矩阵，然后允许通过 RAS 方法识别给定省内外任何两个部门之间进行的交易. 估计提供的证据表明，对国民账户的短期净影响并不显着，在一些模拟情景下，根据有关地震管理的官方信息，这种影响甚至可能对增长产生积极影响2016年国民生产总值。