Abstract

Staying within the 2 °C (preferably 1.5 °C) limit requires fast and fundamental system changes, also in urban passenger transport. Shifting car traffic to environmentally friendly transport modes is one central strategy to make urban transport more sustainable and climate friendly. However, in most cities car use remains high. Therefore, this paper analyzes what course change is needed regarding direction, scale and speed of change for urban sustainability and climate protection reasons. The paper analyzes the role of modal shift as a strategy in itself and in relation to land-use (avoid) and efficiency (improve) measures. The paper draws on insights from European frontrunning cities and explorative forecasting scenarios calculated with the sophisticated integrated land-use transport model “Ruhr Region 2050”. The paper suggests that a significant reduction of urban car use is needed (direction) that roughly equals a fast halving of car use (scale), which has proven feasible under the current socio-political conditions by annual reduction rates of 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points of the trip-based modal share of car use (speed). Significantly reducing car use requires comprehensive and high-intensive measures that go far beyond usual practices. Modal shift measures need to play a crucial role in integrated approaches with land-use (avoid) and efficiency (improve) measures because they have the potential to significantly reduce car use and CO₂ emissions and because they can produce comparatively fast effects – which makes modal shift measures first aid approaches to achieve a fast “bending of the curve” of excessive car use and growing CO₂ emissions.

摘要

保持在 2°C（最好是 1.5°C）的限制范围内需要快速和根本的系统变化，城市客运也是如此。将汽车交通转变为环保交通方式是使城市交通更加可持续和气候友好的一项核心战略。然而，在大多数城市，汽车使用率仍然很高。因此，本文针对城市可持续性和气候保护的原因，就变化的方向、规模和速度进行了分析。本文分析了模式转变本身作为一种战略的作用，以及与土地利用（避免）和效率（改善）措施的关系。该论文借鉴了欧洲领先城市的见解和使用复杂的综合土地利用交通模型“Ruhr Region 2050”计算的探索性预测情景。方向）大致相当于汽车使用量（规模）的快速减半，这在当前的社会政治条件下已被证明是可行的，每年减少 0.5 至 1.5 个百分点的基于出行的汽车使用量份额（速度）。显着减少汽车使用需要远远超出常规做法的全面和高强度措施。模式转换措施需要在土地使用（避免）和效率（改善）措施的综合方法中发挥关键作用，因为它们有可能显着减少汽车使用和 CO ₂排放，因为它们可以产生相对较快的效果——这使得模式转变措施采取急救方法，以实现过度使用汽车和不断增长的 CO ₂排放的快速“曲线弯曲”。