November 2020 received a string of encouraging results from leading vaccine developers raising hopes for the imminent availability of an effective and safe vaccine against the SARS-CoV-2. In the present work, we discuss the theoretical impact of introducing a vaccine across a range of scenarios. In particular, we investigate how vaccination coverage, efficacy and delivery time affect the control of the transmission dynamics in comparison to mobility restrictions. The analysis is based on a metapopulation epidemic model structured by risk. We perform a global sensitivity analysis using the Sobol method. Our analysis suggest that the reduction of mobility among patches plays a significant role in the mitigation of the disease close to the effect of immunization coverage of 30% achieved in four months. Moreover, for an immunization coverage between 20% and 50% achieved in the first half of 2021 with a vaccine efficacy between 70% and 95%, the percentage reduction in the total number of SARS-CoV-2 infections is between 30% and 50% by the end of 2021 in comparison with the no vaccination scenario.

2020 年 11 月，领先的疫苗开发商取得了一系列令人鼓舞的结果，这让人们对即将推出有效且安全的 SARS-CoV-2 疫苗充满了希望。在目前的工作中，我们讨论了在一系列情况下引入疫苗的理论影响。特别是，我们研究了与流动性限制相比，疫苗接种覆盖率、有效性和交付时间如何影响传播动态的控制。该分析基于按风险构建的集合种群流行病模型。我们使用 Sobol 方法进行全局敏感性分析。我们的分析表明，斑块之间流动性的减少在缓解疾病方面发挥着重要作用，接近四个月内实现的 30% 免疫覆盖率的效果。此外，如果2021年上半年免疫覆盖率达到20%至50%，疫苗效力在70%至95%之间，SARS-CoV-2感染总数的减少百分比将在30%至50%之间到 2021 年底，与不接种疫苗的情况相比，将增加 %。