Mountain social-ecological systems (MtSES) are transforming rapidly due to changes in multiple environmental and socioeconomic drivers. However, the complexity and diversity of MtSES present challenges for local communities, researchers and decision makers seeking to anticipate change and promote action towards sustainable MtSES. Participatory scenario planning can reveal potential futures and their interacting dynamics, while archetype analysis aggregates insights from site-based scenarios. We combined a systematic review of the global MtSES participatory scenarios literature and archetype analysis to identify emergent MtSES archetypal configurations. An initial sample of 1983 rendered 42 articles that contained 142 scenarios within which were 852 ‘futures states’. From these future states within the scenarios, we identified 59 desirable and undesirable futures that were common across studies. These ‘common futures’ were grouped into four clusters that correlated significantly with three social-ecological factors (GDP per capita, income inequality, and mean annual temperature). Using these clusters and their associated significant factors, we derived four MtSES scenario archetypal configurations characterized by similar key adaptation strategies, assumptions, risks, and uncertainties. We called these archetypes: (1) “revitalization through effective institutions and tourism”; (2) “local innovations in smallholder farming and forestry”; (3) “upland depopulation and increased risk of hazards”; and (4) “regulated economic and ecological prosperity”. Results indicate risks to be mitigated, including biodiversity loss, ecosystem degradation, cultural heritage change, loss of connection to the land, weak leadership, market collapse, upland depopulation, increased landslides, avalanches, mudflows and rock falls, as well as climate variability and change. Transformative opportunities lie in adaptive biodiversity conservation, income diversification, adaptation to market fluxes, improving transport and irrigation infrastructure, high quality tourism and preserving traditional knowledge. Despite the uncertainties arising from global environmental changes, these archetypes support better targeting of evidence-informed actions across scales and sectors in MtSES.

由于多种环境和社会经济驱动因素的变化，山区社会生态系统 (MtSES) 正在迅速转变。然而，MtSES 的复杂性和多样性给寻求预测变化和促进可持续 MtSES 行动的当地社区、研究人员和决策者带来了挑战。参与式情景规划可以揭示潜在的未来及其相互作用的动态，而原型分析则聚合来自基于站点的情景的见解。我们结合对全球 MtSES 参与性情景文献和原型分析的系统回顾来确定紧急的 MtSES 原型配置。1983 年的初始样本呈现 42 篇文章，其中包含 142 个场景，其中有 852 个“未来状态”。从场景中的这些未来状态，我们确定了 59 项研究中常见的理想和不理想的未来。这些“共同的未来”被分为四个集群，这些集群与三个社会生态因素（人均 GDP、收入不平等和年平均气温）显着相关。使用这些集群及其相关的重要因素，我们得出了四个 MtSES 情景原型配置，其特征是类似的关键适应策略、假设、风险和不确定性。我们称这些原型为：（1）“通过有效的制度和旅游振兴”；（2）“小农林业地方创新”；(3) “高地人口减少和灾害风险增加”；(4) “规范的经济和生态繁荣”。结果表明需要减轻的风险，包括生物多样性丧失、生态系统退化、文化遗产变化、失去与土地的联系、领导力薄弱、市场崩溃、高地人口减少、山体滑坡、雪崩、泥石流和岩崩增加，以及气候变异和变化。变革机会在于适应性生物多样性保护、收入多样化、适应市场波动、改善交通和灌溉基础设施、高质量旅游业和保护传统知识。尽管全球环境变化带来了不确定性，但这些原型支持更好地针对 MtSES 中跨规模和部门的循证行动。变革机会在于适应性生物多样性保护、收入多样化、适应市场波动、改善交通和灌溉基础设施、高质量旅游业和保护传统知识。尽管全球环境变化带来了不确定性，但这些原型支持更好地针对 MtSES 中跨规模和部门的循证行动。变革机会在于适应性生物多样性保护、收入多样化、适应市场波动、改善交通和灌溉基础设施、高质量旅游业和保护传统知识。尽管全球环境变化带来了不确定性，但这些原型支持更好地针对 MtSES 中跨规模和部门的循证行动。