ABSTRACT

This note provides a model framework for thinking about stabilization policies in the presence of hysteresis after a negative shock like the Covid-19 pandemic. Headline measures of the so-called potential GDP published by the Congressional Budget Office represent only one of many possible inflation-neutral trajectories for output. The term potential GDP is misleading since potential implies a unique limit on output. It is much more accurate to consider a range of possible trajectories or multiple equilibria. Repairing the damages from a shock will require overshooting the inflation target and running the economy above its inflation-neutral equilibrium in order to restore the status quo ante level of output and employment. The model assumes constant trend growth so that path dependence takes the form of pure output-level effects.

摘要

本说明提供了一个模型框架，用于在 Covid-19 大流行等负面冲击之后出现滞后的情况下思考稳定政策。国会预算办公室公布的所谓潜在 GDP 的主要指标仅代表产出的许多可能的通胀中性轨迹之一。潜在 GDP 一词具有误导性，因为潜在意味着对产出的独特限制。考虑一系列可能的轨迹或多个平衡点要准确得多。修复冲击造成的损害将需要超过通胀目标并使经济运行在通胀中性均衡之上，以恢复原状产出和就业水平。该模型假设趋势持续增长，因此路径依赖采用纯产出水平效应的形式。