ABSTRACT

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons entered into force on 22 January 2021. What can be expected in the years following (TPNW)? In the first few years, we can expect that states parties will start to implement the treaty’s positive obligations, and that entities within states outside the treaty will begin to adhere to the new norm set by the treaty. Within the next decade, we can anticipate additional engagement with the treaty from outside states, including weapons possessors, and changes in their weapon policies to more closely adhere to the treaty. Over time, states outside the treaty are expected to sign and ratify the TPNW as the norm grows and the treaty approaches universalisation.

摘要

《禁止核武器条约》于 2021 年 1 月 22 日生效。接下来的几年（TPNW）会发生什么？在最初的几年里，我们可以预期缔约国将开始履行条约的积极义务，条约之外的国家内部的实体将开始遵守条约设定的新规范。在接下来的十年内，我们可以预期外部国家（包括武器拥有者）会更多地参与该条约，并改变其武器政策以更紧密地遵守该条约。随着时间的推移，随着规范的发展和条约的普遍化，条约之外的国家有望签署和批准 TPNW。