The effects of solar radiation storms at Earth are felt across a number of technology-based industries. Energetic particles present during these storms impact electrical components on spacecraft, disrupt high frequency radio communications, and pose a radiation risk for passengers and crew on polar flight routes, as well as for astronauts. An essential aspect of space weather forecasting is therefore to predict the occurrence and properties of a solar proton event before it occurs. In this study, we review radiation storm products issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) during Solar Cycles 23 and 24. These include three-day probabilistic proton event forecasts and short-term Warning and Alert hazard products. We present performance metrics and forecast skill scores for SWPC probabilistic forecasts and Warning products, which can be used as a benchmark for assessing the performance of radiation storm forecast models.

中文翻译：

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国家海洋和大气局空间天气预报中心质子事件预报性能与技巧综述

许多以技术为基础的行业都感受到了太阳辐射风暴对地球的影响。这些风暴期间存在的高能粒子会影响航天器上的电子元件，破坏高频无线电通信，并对极地飞行路线上的乘客和机组人员以及宇航员构成辐射风险。因此，空间天气预报的一个重要方面是在太阳质子事件发生之前预测它的发生和性质。在本研究中，我们回顾了美国国家海洋和大气管理局空间天气预报中心 (SWPC) 在太阳周期 23 和 24 期间发布的辐射风暴产品。其中包括三天概率质子事件预测以及短期警告和警报危害产品。