ABSTRACT

Migration has accelerated at the nexus of global warming and geopolitical unrest in vulnerable regions, challenging the resilience of societies. Forced displacements in the world have increased significantly in the recent decade, and an estimated 22.5 million people have left their homes due to climate change since 2008. Most of this migration has remained internal and regional, but who will move, where and in what numbers in future is still debated. How the relationship between climate change and migration is viewed and described by influential policy making bodies has consequences for what kind of actions that are proposed to deal with the phenomenon and thereby also for the lives of those who are most affected by the negative effects of climate change globally. Is migration considered a problem or a solution, and for whom? Focusing on years during which forced displacement increased significantly, we explore perspectives on climate induced migration in UN and EU official policy documents. The results show that both actors consider climate change as potentially leading to increased cross-border migration. UN perspectives tend to be human security-oriented while the EU perspectives tend to focus on state security. Response measures tend to focus on support to climate adaptation.

摘要

由于全球变暖和脆弱地区地缘政治动荡，移民加速了，挑战了社会的复原力。近十年来，世界上被迫流离失所的人数显着增加，自 2008 年以来，估计有 2250 万人因气候变化而离开家园。大部分迁徙仍然是国内和区域性的，但谁将迁往何处，以多少人迁徙未来仍在争论中。有影响力的决策机构如何看待和描述气候变化与移民之间的关系，这对拟采取何种行动来应对这一现象产生影响，从而也对受气候负面影响影响最大的人的生活产生影响改变全局。迁移被视为问题还是解决方案，为谁？关注被迫流离失所显着增加的年份，我们探讨了联合国和欧盟官方政策文件中气候引起的移民的观点。结果表明，双方都认为气候变化可能导致跨境移民增加。联合国的观点倾向于以人的安全为导向，而欧盟的观点则倾向于关注国家安全。应对措施往往侧重于支持气候适应。