Campylobacteriosis is an emerging foodborne illness which is frequently linked to the consumption of inadequately prepared poultry. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk associated with thermotolerant Campylobacter spp. in chicken döner kebab and to estimate the number of campylobacteriosis cases due to its consumption in Tlemcen city (Algeria). In order to estimate the human exposure to Campylobacter from a döner kebab meal and the number of human cases associated to this exposure, a stochastic risk model was developed, covering the whole food pathway. The model details the spread and transfer of Campylobacter in döner kebab from slaughter to consumption and the relationship between ingested dose and the probability of developing campylobacteriosis. Information and data for the development of the risk model were obtained in this study and when not available they were obtained from other research. Whenever possible, the data were represented by probability distributions rather than single point estimates, as they were to be integrated in a probabilistic estimation of the risk using Monte Carlo simulation. We found that 86.2% of chicken meat samples were contaminated, 17% higher than 4.0 Log cfu/g. 37.5% of döner kebab samples were contaminated. It is estimated that 5 infections will occur for every 100 döner kebab consumptions and that one person in sixty-six can get a campylobacteriosis by eating a döner kebab meal. The QMRA approach allows for an overall scenario analysis. It was found that intervention during slaughter and at the cooking process of döner kebab is probably most efficient to reduce Campylobacter health risks. Furthermore, important data gaps could be identified.

弯曲杆菌病是一种新出现的食源性疾病，通常与食用未充分准备的家禽有关。本研究的目的是评估与耐热弯曲杆菌相关的风险。在鸡肉烤肉串中，并估计由于在特莱姆森市（阿尔及利亚）消费而导致的弯曲杆菌病病例数。为了估计人类从烤肉串餐中接触弯曲杆菌的情况以及与这种接触相关的人类病例数，开发了一个随机风险模型，涵盖了整个食物途径。该模型详细说明了弯曲杆菌的传播和转移在烤肉串从屠宰到消费以及摄入剂量与发生弯曲杆菌病的可能性之间的关系。在本研究中获得了用于开发风险模型的信息和数据，如果无法获得，则从其他研究中获得。只要有可能，数据就由概率分布而不是单点估计来表示，因为它们将被整合到使用蒙特卡罗模拟的风险概率估计中。我们发现 86.2% 的鸡肉样品受到污染，比 4.0 Log cfu/g 高 17%。37.5% 的烤肉串样品被污染。据估计，每吃 100 顿烤肉串，就会发生 5 次感染，每 66 人中就有一个人会因吃一顿烤肉串而感染弯曲杆菌病。QMRA 方法允许进行整体情景分析。结果表明，在屠宰和烤肉串的烹饪过程中进行干预可能最有效地减少弯曲杆菌健康风险。此外，可以确定重要的数据差​​距。