Research on predicting the growth trend of natural gas reserves and production will help provide a scientific basis for natural gas exploration and development. The metabolically improved modified weight coefficient GM(1,n) method is applied to the multi-cycle Hubbert model to predict the trend of new proven natural gas reserves in the Sichuan Basin. The ultimate recoverable reserves (URR) is introduced as a boundary condition in the production-time series to predict the natural gas production growth. The research results show that: (1) The annual newly added proven natural gas reserves of the Sichuan Basin maintain a multi-cycle growth trend, which will reach the peak reserves in 2034, at which time the proven rate of natural gas will reach 36%. (2) Based on the predicted results of proven reserves, the final recoverable reserves of natural gas are estimated to be \(5.25-5.75\times {10}^{12}{m}^{3}\). The production in 2035 will reach \(750-810\times {10}^{8}{\mathrm{m}}^{3}/\mathrm{a}\), and production will grow rapidly. The exploration and development of natural gas in the basin will be prospective for a long time.

预测天然气储量和产量增长趋势的研究将为天然气勘探开发提供科学依据。将代谢改进修正权重系数GM(1,n)方法应用于多周期Hubbert模型预测四川盆地新探明天然气储量趋势。引入最终可采储量 (URR) 作为生产时间序列中的边界条件来预测天然气产量增长。研究结果表明：（1）四川盆地年新增探明天然气储量保持多周期增长趋势，2034年将达到储量高峰，届时天然气探明率将达到36 %。(2)根据探明储量预测结果，\(5.25-5.75\times {10}^{12}{m}^{3}\)。2035年产量将达到\(750-810\times {10}^{8}{\mathrm{m}}^{3}/\mathrm{a}\)，产量将快速增长。盆地天然气勘探开发具有长期前景。