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The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change
Nature Climate Change ( IF 29.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-31 , DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x
A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera , N. Scovronick , F. Sera , D. Royé , R. Schneider , A. Tobias , C. Astrom , Y. Guo , Y. Honda , D. M. Hondula , R. Abrutzky , S. Tong , M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho , P. H. Nascimento Saldiva , E. Lavigne , P. Matus Correa , N. Valdes Ortega , H. Kan , S. Osorio , J. Kyselý , A. Urban , H. Orru , E. Indermitte , J. J. K. Jaakkola , N. Ryti , M. Pascal , A. Schneider , K. Katsouyanni , E. Samoli , F. Mayvaneh , A. Entezari , P. Goodman , A. Zeka , P. Michelozzi , F. de’Donato , M. Hashizume , B. Alahmad , M. Hurtado Diaz , C. De La Cruz Valencia , A. Overcenco , D. Houthuijs , C. Ameling , S. Rao , F. Di Ruscio , G. Carrasco-Escobar , X. Seposo , S. Silva , J. Madureira , I. H. Holobaca , S. Fratianni , F. Acquaotta , H. Kim , W. Lee , C. Iniguez , B. Forsberg , M. S. Ragettli , Y. L. L. Guo , B. Y. Chen , S. Li , B. Armstrong , A. Aleman , A. Zanobetti , J. Schwartz , T. N. Dang , D. V. Dung , N. Gillett , A. Haines , M. Mengel , V. Huber , A. Gasparrini

Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.



中文翻译:


最近人类引起的气候变化导致与高温相关的死亡负担



气候变化影响人类健康;然而,目前还没有大规模、系统性的努力来量化因气候变化而已经发生的与高温有关的人类健康影响。在这里,我们使用来自 43 个国家 732 个地点的经验数据来估计 1991 年至 2018 年期间与近期人为变暖导致的额外热暴露相关的死亡负担。在所有研究国家中,我们发现 37.0%(范围 20.5-76.3%)的暖季热相关死亡可归因于人为气候变化,并且每个大陆的死亡率明显增加。负担因地理位置而异,但许多地方每年造成数十至数百人死亡。我们的研究结果支持迫切需要采取更雄心勃勃的缓解和适应战略,以尽量减少气候变化对公共卫生的影响。

更新日期:2021-05-31
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