This study examines the declining crime trend among Swedish adolescents between 1999 and 2017 using data from eight repeated cross-sectional waves of a nationally representative school survey (N = ca. 49,000). We examined to what extent changes in parental monitoring, school bonds, attitudes toward crime, routine activities, and binge drinking were related to the noticeable decline in youth crime. Multilevel modeling was employed for the analysis of temporal trends. We found strong empirical support for our hypotheses, that is, that changes in social bonds, attitudes toward crime, and routine activities were all associated with the decline in youth crime. Routine activities had the strongest explanatory power, and all predictors combined accounted for most of the variance attributed to the decline in youth crime. This study moves research on the crime drop closer to the analysis of social mechanisms by demonstrating that micro-level associations between theoretically relevant, proximal variables, and delinquency account for macro-level change.

中文翻译：

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改变日常活动和青年犯罪率下降：对瑞典自报犯罪率的重复横断面分析，1999-2017*

本研究使用来自全国代表性学校调查 ( N) 的八次重复横断面波的数据，检验了 1999 年至 2017 年瑞典青少年犯罪率下降的趋势。 = 大约 49,000）。我们研究了父母监督、学校纽带、对犯罪的态度、日常活动和酗酒的变化在多大程度上与青少年犯罪的显着下降有关。采用多级建模来分析时间趋势。我们为我们的假设找到了强有力的实证支持，即社会联系、对犯罪的态度和日常活动的变化都与青年犯罪率下降有关。日常活动的解释力最强，所有预测因素加起来占了青年犯罪率下降的大部分差异。本研究通过证明理论上相关的近端变量之间的微观关联，使犯罪下降的研究更接近于社会机制的分析，