A recent reform in the Italian labour market has modified the permanent contract by reducing firing costs. Using a discontinuity in the application of the reform, we evaluate its effect on the probability of being still employed about three and a half years later. In contrast with theoretical predictions, we find that the job survival probability is not smaller for the treated and even significantly larger in some cases. We investigate the composition of permanent workers hired after the reform and we find evidence of treated firms changing their recruitment strategy in favour of potentially more productive workers.

中文翻译：

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解雇成本和失业：意大利就业法案的案例

意大利劳动力市场最近的一项改革通过降低解雇成本修改了永久合同。使用改革应用的不连续性，我们评估了它对大约三年半后仍然就业的可能性的影响。与理论预测相比，我们发现治疗组的工作生存概率并不小，在某些情况下甚至更大。我们调查了改革后聘用的固定员工的构成，我们发现有证据表明受过待遇的公司改变了他们的招聘策略，以支持可能更具生产力的员工。