Project success is critical in the crowdfunding domain. Rather than the existing project-centric prediction methods, we propose a novel backer-centric prediction method. We identify each backer's preferences based on their pledge history and calculate the cosine similarity between backer's preferences and the project as each backer's persuasibility. Finally, we aggregate all the backers' persuasibility to predict project success. To validate our method, we crawled data on 183,886 projects launched during or before December 2014 on Kickstarter, a crowdfunding website. We selected 4,922 backers with a total of 442,793 pledges to identify backers' preferences. The results show that a backer is more likely to be persuaded by a project that is more similar to the backer's preferences. Our findings not only demonstrate the efficacy of backers' pledge history for predicting crowdfunding project success but also verify that a backer-centric method can supplement the existing project-centric approaches. Our model and findings enable crowdfunding platform agencies, fund-seeking entrepreneurs, and investors to predict the success of a crowdfunding project.

中文翻译：

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根据支持者的语言偏好预测众筹项目的成功

项目成功在众筹领域至关重要。我们提出了一种新颖的以支持者为中心的预测方法，而不是现有的以项目为中心的预测方法。我们根据每个支持者的承诺历史识别他们的偏好，并计算支持者​​偏好与项目之间的余弦相似度作为每个支持者的说服力。最后，我们汇总所有支持者的说服力来预测项目成功。为了验证我们的方法，我们在众筹网站 Kickstarter 上抓取了 2014 年 12 月期间或之前启动的 183,886 个项目的数据。我们选择了 4,922 名支持者，共有 442,793 个承诺来确定支持者的偏好。结果表明，支持者更有可能被一个与支持者偏好更相似的项目所说服。我们的研究结果不仅证明了支持者的承诺历史对预测众筹项目成功的有效性，而且还验证了以支持者为中心的方法可以补充现有的以项目为中心的方法。我们的模型和发现使众筹平台机构、寻求资金的企业家和投资者能够预测众筹项目的成功。