Background

As a policy option to reduce consumption of alcohol and the harm it does, on May 1, 2018, Scotland introduced a minimum price of 50 British pence (p) per unit of alcohol (8 g) sold; Wales followed suit on March 2, 2020, with the same minimum unit price (MUP). We analysed household purchase data based on bar codes to assess the impact of these policy options in the medium term for Scotland and in the immediate term for Wales.

Methods

For these location-controlled, interrupted time series regression analyses, the data source was Kantar WorldPanel's household shopping panel, which, at the time of our analysis, included 35 242 British households providing detailed information on 1·24 million separate alcohol purchases in 2015–18 and the first half of 2020. With no data exclusions, we analysed the impact of introducing MUP in Scotland, using purchases in northern England as control, and in Wales, using western England as control. The studied changes associated with MUP were price paid per gram of alcohol purchased, grams of alcohol purchased, and amount of money spent on alcohol.

Findings

In Scotland, price increases and purchase decreases following the introduction of MUP in 2018 were maintained during the first half of 2020. The difference between Scotland and northern England in 2020 was a price increase of 0·741 p per gram (95% CI 0·724–0·759), a 7·6% increase, and a purchase decrease of 7·063 g per adult per household per day that an alcohol purchase was made (6·656–7·470), a 7·7% decrease. In Wales, the introduction of MUP led to similar results. The difference between Wales and western England was a price increase 0·841 of 0·841 p per gram (0·732–0·951), an 8·2% increase, and a purchase decrease of 7·052 g per adult per household per day that an alcohol purchase was made (6·463–7·640), an 8·6% decrease. For both Scotland and Wales, reductions in overall purchases of alcohol were largely restricted to households that bought the most alcohol. The introduction of MUP was not associated with an increased expenditure on alcohol by households that generally bought small amounts of alcohol and, in particular, those with low incomes. The changes were not affected by the introduction of COVID-19 confinement in the UK on March 26, 2020.

Interpretation

The evidence base supporting the positive, targeted impact of MUP is strengthened by the comparable results for Scotland and Wales. The short-term impact of MUP in Scotland during 2018 is maintained during the first half of 2020. MUP is an effective alcohol policy option to reduce off-trade purchases of alcohol and should be widely considered.

Funding

None.

中文翻译：

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最低单价对苏格兰和威尔士酒类购买的影响：受控中断时间序列分析

背景

作为减少酒精消费及其危害的一项政策选择，苏格兰于 2018 年 5 月 1 日推出了每售出一单位酒精（8 克）50 英镑的最低价格；威尔士于 2020 年 3 月 2 日效仿，最低单价 (MUP) 相同。我们根据条形码分析了家庭购买数据，以评估这些政策选择对苏格兰中期和近期对威尔士的影响。

方法

对于这些位置控制的、中断的时间序列回归分析，数据源是 Kantar WorldPanel 的家庭购物小组，在我们分析时，该小组包括 35242 个英国家庭，提供了 2015 年 1·2400 万次酒精购买的详细信息– 18 日和 2020 年上半年。在不排除数据的情况下，我们分析了在苏格兰引入 MUP 的影响，使用英格兰北部的购买作为控制，以及在威尔士使用英格兰西部作为控制。研究的与 MUP 相关的变化是购买每克酒精所支付的价格、购买的酒精克数以及在酒精上花费的金额。

发现

在苏格兰，2018 年引入 MUP 后的价格上涨和购买量下降在 2020 年上半年得以维持。2020 年苏格兰和英格兰北部之间的差异是每克价格上涨 0·741 p（95% CI 0· 724–0·759)，增加了 7·6%，每个成年人每家庭每天购买的酒精减少了 7·063 克 (6·656–7·470)，减少了 7·7%减少。在威尔士，MUP 的引入导致了类似的结果。威尔士和英格兰西部之间的差异是价格上涨 0·841，即每克 0·841 便士（0·732–0·951），上涨 8·2%，每位成人每人购买量减少 7·052 克家庭每天购买酒精饮料 (6·463–7·640)，减少 8·6%。对于苏格兰和威尔士，酒类整体购买量的减少主要限于购买最多酒类的家庭。MUP 的引入与通常购买少量酒精的家庭，特别是低收入家庭的酒精支出增加无关。这些变化不受 2020 年 3 月 26 日在英国引入 COVID-19 隔离措施的影响。

解释

苏格兰和威尔士的可比结果加强了支持 MUP 积极、有针对性影响的证据基础。MUP 在 2018 年对苏格兰的短期影响在 2020 年上半年得以维持。MUP 是一种有效的酒精政策选择，可以减少酒类的场外购买，应该得到广泛考虑。

资金

没有任何。