This paper uses data on the location and movement of establishments and employment in London to estimate the impact of a metro opening on the spatial distribution of economic activity. In addition to fixed effect methods, we employ a planned-route instrumental variables methodology which uses planned but abandoned metro alignments. We find that areas within walking distance to stations experience a positive effect, whereas areas further but still within 2000 m experience a significant negative impact. Our results provide empirical evidence for the model of Redding and Turner (2015) as areas close to the transport scheme but not subject to it are worse off than areas further away. The results suggest no growth, only displacement on the local level: the metro shifted economic activity closer to the stations.

本文使用伦敦机构和就业的位置和流动数据来估计地铁开放对经济活动空间分布的影响。除了固定效应方法外，我们还采用了计划路线工具变量方法，该方法使用计划但已放弃的地铁路线。我们发现距离车站步行距离内的区域会产生积极影响，而距离较远但仍在 2000 m 以内的区域会受到显着的负面影响。我们的结果为 Redding 和 Turner (2015) 的模型提供了经验证据，因为靠近交通计划但不受交通计划约束的地区比更远的地区情况更糟。结果表明没有增长，只有地方层面的位移：地铁将经济活动转移到更靠近车站的地方。