While growth in India stayed relatively stable over the last decade, Brazil fell into deep recession and a fundamental political and economic crisis. Why did these two countries, despite their similarities, diverge so massively within only 10 years? Through a paired comparison, this article probes two alternative approaches to capitalist diversity to explain the divergence among two rising economic powers and ‘state capitalisms’. It finds that through the lens of a firm-centred supply-side approach, one largely sees institutional stability in both economies, while a focus on the demand side and respective growth models makes visible fundamental destabilization in Brazil. The fragility of domestic demand, the vulnerability of global economic integration and the erosion of key social coalitions, we contend, are key to unpack the divergence between Brazil and India. This study thereby not only sheds a new light on emerging market capitalism but also discusses further possibilities for the analysis of state capitalism within comparative political economy.

虽然印度的增长在过去十年保持相对稳定，但巴西却陷入深度衰退和根本性的政治和经济危机。为什么这两个国家尽管有相似之处，却在短短10年之内如此巨大的分歧？通过配对比较，本文探讨了资本主义多样性的两种替代方法，以解释两个新兴经济大国和“国家资本主义”之间的差异。它发现，通过以企业为中心的供应方方法的视角，人们在很大程度上看到了两个经济体的制度稳定性，而对需求方和各自增长模式的关注使巴西的基本面不稳定。我们认为，国内需求的脆弱性、全球经济一体化的脆弱性以及主要社会联盟的削弱，是消除巴西和印度之间分歧的关键。因此，本研究不仅为新兴市场资本主义提供了新的视角，而且还讨论了在比较政治经济学中分析国家资本主义的进一步可能性。