This ocean numerical modelling study is focused on the shelf waters off southwest Ireland. Outputs from the model are used to provide scientists and policy makers with climate change information related to oceanic conditions that influence harmful algal blooms in the region. Four simulations were developed to include a 20-year hindcast simulation (1997–2016), a 31-year historical simulation (1975–2005), and two 30-year future climate model projections (2006–2035) for the representative carbon pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. We evaluated the hindcast model skill by comparing the simulation outputs with measured observational data and calculated statistics such as the bias, and the root mean square error (RMSE). The observations consisted of satellite sea surface temperature and, CTD temperature and salinity profile data collected in Irish waters. The sea surface temperature RMSEs between the 20-year hindcast simulation and the satellite data were ca. 0.50°C. A minimum RMSE of ca. 0.20°C was recorded in December 2015. The basin-averaged bias (difference) and RMSE for near bottom temperature between the RCP 4.5 and the historical simulation was 0.14°C and 0.27°C respectively. The sea surface temperature anomaly pattern for the RCP 8.5 shows warming across the whole model domain. The sea surface salinity and near bottom salinity climate simulation anomaly maps indicate a general freshening on the southwest Irish shelf. A change of ca. 0.2 sea surface salinity and near bottom salinity was observed. The RCP 8.5 simulation shows the highest current velocities when compared to other simulations. The Irish coastal current pattern under the RCP 8.5 scenario appears very intense and well defined with a velocity > 20 [cm/s].

这项海洋数值模拟研究的重点是爱尔兰西南部的大陆架水域。该模型的输出用于为科学家和决策者提供与影响该地区有害藻华的海洋条件相关的气候变化信息。开发了四个模拟，包括一个 20 年的后报模拟（1997-2016）、一个 31 年的历史模拟（1975-2005）和两个 30 年未来气候模型预测（2006-2035）的代表性碳路径（ RCP) 4.5 和 8.5 场景。我们通过将模拟输出与测量的观测数据和计算的统计数据（如偏差和均方根误差 (RMSE)）进行比较来评估后报模型技能。观测包括卫星海面温度和，在爱尔兰水域收集的 CTD 温度和盐度剖面数据。20 年的后报模拟与卫星数据之间的海面温度 RMSE 约为 0.50°C。大约的最小 RMSE。2015 年 12 月记录了 0.20°C。RCP 4.5 与历史模拟之间近底温度的盆地平均偏差（差值）和 RMSE 分别为 0.14°C 和 0.27°C。RCP 8.5 的海面温度异常模式显示了整个模型域的变暖。海面盐度和近底盐度气候模拟异常图表明爱尔兰西南部陆架普遍清新。约的变化。0.2 海面盐度和近底盐度被观测到。与其他模拟相比，RCP 8.5 模拟显示出最高的电流速度。