Using a survey of French manufacturing firms, we study how firms’ expectations and actions are affected by both aggregate and industry-specific conditions. In response to industry-level shocks that have no aggregate effects, firms’ aggregate expectations respond persistently. This is consistent with “island” models in which firms use the local prices they observe to make inferences about broader aggregate conditions. These patterns are related to observable characteristics of firms and the industries in which they reside. Finally, we extend the analysis to firms’ expectations over their own future price changes and document how these respond to both industry and aggregate variation.

通过对法国制造企业的调查，我们研究了企业的期望和行为如何受到总体条件和行业特定条件的影响。为了应对没有总体效应的行业层面的冲击，企业的总体预期会持续做出反应。这与公司使用他们观察到的当地价格来推断更广泛的总体条件的“孤岛”模型是一致的。这些模式与公司及其所在行业的可观察特征有关。最后，我们将分析扩展到企业对其未来价格变化的预期，并记录这些预期如何响应行业和总体变化。