It has often been observed that the emergence of states in a region is typically preceded by an earlier transition to agricultural production. Using new data on the date of first state emergence within contemporary countries, we present a global scale analysis of the chronological relationship between the transition to agriculture and the subsequent emergence of states. We find statistically significant relationships between early reliance on agriculture and state age in all sub-samples and also when we use alternative sources of data at different levels of geographical aggregation. A one millennium earlier transition to agriculture among non-pristine states predicts a 317-430 year earlier state emergence. We uncover differences in cases where states were imposed from outside or when they emerged through internal origination. The agriculture-state lag is on average 3.1 millennia in internally originated (including pristine) states, and 2.7 millennia in externally originated states. We also explore some of the mechanisms through which agriculture is believed to have influenced the emergence of states. Our results indicate that the rise of social classes was often an intermediate step towards the presence of early states.

人们经常观察到，一个地区国家的出现通常先于向农业生产的较早过渡。我们使用当代国家首次出现国家的日期的新数据，对向农业转型与随后国家出现之间的时间顺序关系进行了全球范围的分析。我们发现早期对农业的依赖与所有子样本中的州年龄之间存在统计学上的显着关系，并且当我们在不同的地理聚合级别使用替代数据来源时也是如此。在非原始状态中提前一千年向农业过渡预示着状态会提前 317-430 年出现。我们发现了国家从外部强加或通过内部起源出现的情况下的差异。国内（包括原始）国家的农业国家滞后平均为 3.1 千年，而外部国家则为 2.7 千年。我们还探讨了人们认为农业影响国家出现的一些机制。我们的研究结果表明，社会阶级的兴起通常是迈向早期国家存在的中间步骤。