Projected climate changes will additionally increase the already significant risk of natural hazard-related disasters in Serbia and the west Balkan region as a whole. Serbia is about to introduce the strategy for climate change adaptation and mitigation. However, a national decision-support system for implementation of the climate change law and strategy is yet to be developed. This study contributes to the implementation of adaptation policies at subnational levels by development of a decision-support model for local-level management of the climate change adaptation process. The study explores the potential for synergetic application of multicriteria decision making analysis and probabilistic reasoning methods by focusing on Bayesian networks, analytical hierarchy processes, and geographic information systems for selection of priority adaptation measures. The study was based on the formation of causal chains, which enable linking management decisions and socioeconomic or biophysical consequences into articulated sequences of conditional relationships. A model was tested in the forestry sector, and it clearly pointed out development of an early warning system and planning of water intake basins as priority adaptation measures. Since the results are shown as a probability distribution for each alternative solutions, the model can assist decision makers with prompt evaluation of various scenarios.

预计的气候变化还将增加塞尔维亚和整个西巴尔干地区本已显着的自然灾害相关灾害的风险。塞尔维亚即将出台气候变化适应和减缓战略。然而，实施气候变化法律和战略的国家决策支持系统还有待开发。本研究通过为地方层面的气候变化适应过程管理开发决策支持模型，有助于在次国家层面实施适应政策。该研究通过关注贝叶斯网络、层次分析过程、和地理信息系统，用于选择优先适应措施。该研究基于因果链的形成，它能够将管理决策和社会经济或生物物理后果联系到条件关系的明确序列中。在林业部门测试了一个模型，它明确指出发展早期预警系统和规划取水盆地是优先适应措施。由于结果显示为每个备选解决方案的概率分布，因此该模型可以帮助决策者对各种场景进行及时评估。在林业部门测试了一个模型，它明确指出发展早期预警系统和规划取水盆地是优先适应措施。由于结果显示为每个备选解决方案的概率分布，因此该模型可以帮助决策者对各种场景进行及时评估。在林业部门测试了一个模型，它明确指出发展早期预警系统和规划取水盆地是优先适应措施。由于结果显示为每个备选解决方案的概率分布，因此该模型可以帮助决策者对各种场景进行及时评估。