This investigation analyzes the characteristics of the largest US wholesale electricity market’s production cost curve and supply curve during the most extreme winter weather event in modern meteorological history. The experience of this event demonstrates that the annual-summer-peak-centric nature of the Northeast US’ PJM capacity planning process does not address the adequacy of supply during the winter. The production cost curve is estimated and compared across recent winter season peak months to understand how large the price responsiveness to load changes can be during extreme winter weather events and how winter weather events can reduce system reliability for a summer-capacity-planning-centric power market. Therefore, PJM and other power pool markets have not considered secondary peak seasons in capacity planning. The shape of the production cost curve discussed herein is a critical component of the structural model and determinant of spot and forward market electricity prices.

本次调查分析了美国最大的电力批发市场在现代气象史上最极端的冬季天气事件期间的生产成本曲线和供应曲线的特征。该事件的经验表明，美国东北部的 PJM 容量规划过程以年度夏季高峰为中心的性质并没有解决冬季供应的充足问题。估算并比较最近冬季高峰月份的生产成本曲线，以了解在极端冬季天气事件期间价格对负载变化的响应有多大，以及冬季天气事件如何降低以夏季容量规划为中心的电力系统的可靠性市场。因此，PJM 和其他电力池市场在容量规划中没有考虑二次旺季。